The Brief – Ukraine’s Nuclear Option

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made it plain in Brussels on Oct. 17: if his country does not get a NATO invite immediately, it will develop nuclear weapons.

Facing the press after his participation at the EU summit, Zelenskyy was asked how he hoped to convince the US President, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, that Ukraine should receive an official invitation to join NATO “right now”.

Receiving an invitation to join NATO "right now" is at the top of the five points from his ‘Victory Plan’, which he presented to EU leaders the same day.

He said he would give an example of a conversation he had on this issue.

“I talked to Trump about NATO. There are different signals in the media about his attitude. I gave him the example of the Budapest memorandum,” he said.

Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine surrendered its numerous Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees from Russia, the US, the UK, France, and China to respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.

But as we all know, none of the Western powers came to the defence of Ukraine when Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.

"Which country gave up its nuclear weapons? All of them? Only Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Only Ukraine. That is a fact. In my conversation with Donald Trump, I said to him, 'What is the way out?' Either Ukraine will have again nuclear weapons - and then it will be a certain protection for us - or we must have some alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know any effective alliances today," said Zelenskyy.

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But he stressed Ukraine was "choosing NATO", not nuclear weapons, and that Trump heard him.

We can only imagine what Zelenskyy told leaders in private. But from what he said to the press, it is pretty clear that he warned them that Ukraine would either become a member of NATO or develop nuclear weapons.

Newsweek was one of the rare Western publications to print on this issue, titled “Ukraine Issues Nuclear Ultimatum to NATO”. Similar headlines appeared in Eastern European countries, which seem to have a stronger sensibility when it comes to nuclear hard talk.

Presenting the ‘Victory plan’ to the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said, “For us, determination on the NATO issue for Ukraine also means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine. And that is why this is the initial point of the Victory Plan. The first and very important. The sign of determination. This is what the invitation is. The unconditional invitation right now.”

The second point of the Victory Plan is about defence.

Zelenskyy told his members of parliament, “The defence point of the plan has a secret annexe, and it is accessible only to those partners who have the appropriate military assistance capabilities.”

This is not very difficult to translate. The partners that have nuclear weapons are the USA, France and the UK.

We already wrote last February – “Brace for nuclear proliferation!”. Where we pointed out that Ukraine a country with historic know-how regarding nuclear and missile technologies, is a country at war when democratic checks and balances take the back seat, so we should not be surprised if they are already working on a nuclear programme.

Yesterday’s statements seem to confirm our apprehension.

To understand Ukraine’s message - the fifth point of the ‘Victory Plan’ provides some hints, covering the post-war period.

“We envisage if our partners agree, replacing certain military contingents of the United States Armed Forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units after the war. Ukrainians have proven that they can be the force that Russian evil cannot overcome,” Zelenskyy said.

That is certainly an offer Trump would like very much.

In essence, he left the impression that he is preparing for all eventualities, including a Trump presidency taking top consideration.

What remains to be seen is the reaction of other NATO partners. Our sources say that some of them find Zelenskyy’s declarations rather reckless.