ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12, 2024

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theater on October 12, but ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34.
• Unknown actors opened fire on personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' (MVD) Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia on the night of October 11.
• Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, in part thanks to large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
• Russian forces are reportedly struggling to conduct effective counterbattery fires.

Authors: Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Davit Gasparyan, and George Barros

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