The town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region is semi-encircled, Colonel Vladyslav Seleznyov, former head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) General Staff press service, told Kyiv Post.
“Vuhledar is semi-surrounded. My prediction is that we will lose it in a few days, maybe even sooner,” he said.
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According to Seleznyov, Russian troops have entered an area of multi-story buildings.
“But we need to consider what’s more valuable – human lives or square kilometers. In my opinion, human lives,” Seleznyov said, adding that the situation in Selidovo and Toretsk is also worsening.
In the Vremivsk sector, near Pavlivka and Vuhledar, Russian forces made eight attempts to seize Ukrainian positions, according to the official Tuesday morning report of the Khortytsia operational and strategic group on Telegram.
In January and February 2023, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU outnumbered and defeated Russian troops near Vuhledar, and has been defending this section of the front for two years.
Seleznyov told Kyiv Post that the 72nd is severely exhausted, and it remains uncertain whether the AFU’s General Staff has the resources to continue defending the city, given that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin across the entire front line.
As Forbes analyst David Axe writes, while hostilities in many other sectors have slowed, the fighting around Vuhledar may intensify.
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Axe said that the mined roads and fields around Vuhledar have become a death trap for advancing Russian forces, who are using armored vehicles, motorcycles, and even golf carts.
However, the roads near Vodiane, just a few miles north, are less dangerous, and Russian troops are advancing there under cover of heavy airstrikes, he said.
Axe said that the 72nd is well-equipped with T-64 tanks, BMP-2 combat vehicles, and M-109 howitzers, but he: “Even the best-equipped brigade can’t hold the line forever – and two years is a long time to be in combat without a unit-wide break.”
“The 72nd Mechanized Brigade has achieved a rare feat: defending the same frontline town for nearly two years against a consistently larger enemy force. Now it needs help – If not replacement,” Axe writes.
The Ukrainian military is simultaneously advancing near Kursk while defending in the east and south, stretching its resources thin. Meanwhile, 14 newly formed Ukrainian brigades are facing a critical shortage of modern equipment, Axe said.
DeepState analysts report that the situation around Vuhledar has sharply escalated, with Russian forces attempting to encircle the city.
According to its analysis, the situation has worsened in recent days due to two key factors: the lack of rotation for the 72nd Brigade and the deployment of territorial defense reserves, which have struggled to hold back the Russian offensive.
Recently, Russian forces broke through defenses in the Prechistivka area. As Ukrainian forces retreated to new positions, the Russians were able to outflank the right side of the Vuhledar group. Russian armored units began pushing through the sector near Bohoyavlenka, threatening to cut off logistical routes to Vuhledar, according to DeepState.
On Sunday, Sept. 22, junior sergeant Stanislav Bunyatov, commander of the 24th Aidar Assault Battalion, wrote on Telegram: “The bastards managed to cross the Kashlagach River west of Vuhledar, which means the town will soon be captured.”
He said that the prospects of holding positions in these conditions are bleak, especially as Russian forces attempt to press their advantage along the Bohoyavlenka-Vuhledar road.
“One day we’ll either have to leave the city or remain surrounded,” Bunyatov wrote. “I hope the leadership of the country is considering more than just the reports of local commanders, who might be providing outdated information, but also external sources.”
In a follow-up post on Monday, Bunyatov reported that the situation in the area remains unfavorable for Ukraine, with Russian forces exploiting the exhaustion of Ukrainian troops and making gains.
“The tactics of ‘pincer’ and ‘meat assaults’ are working effectively,” Bunyatov wrote. “It’s hard to talk about high professionalism among the infantry now, but in some places, the enemy’s units are better prepared than ours.”
Bunyatov disclosed that Russian forces can experiment with different approaches, advancing through various routes and using disposable motorcyclists and limitless equipment. This, he says, is how Russian forces managed to infiltrate the outskirts of Vuhledar.
On the morning of Tuesday, Sept. 24, the Ukrainian Telegram channel MILITARY released a video showing the current situation in the town. The accompanying caption indicated that while Russian forces had penetrated Vuhledar’s outer streets, their presence remained unstable.
“This suggests the town is essentially in a gray zone: the enemy cannot hold its position, either retreating or suffering losses. The situation on the flanks remains tense, adding pressure on Ukrainian defense forces,” the report said.
Later Tuesday, the same Telegram channel reported that Russian troops had already entered Vuhledar.
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