AFU Says Fresh Offensive from Belarus Unlikely for Now

The probability of another attack on Ukraine coming from Belarus will depend on whether Russia can reinforce the number of troops to at least 50 thousand, Yevhen Silkin, an AFU spokesperson said on national TV.

“According to our estimation, by the end of this year, the enemy will not be able to accumulate enough forces and means for a second offensive. Although in the spring, such a threat can increase significantly,” he added.

“We can be sure (that the Russian Federation will launch a new offensive from the north) when there are enough enemy troops on the territory of Belarus. Namely, when they strengthen the grouping of troops to about 50 to70 thousand. Then we will be able to say that the Russians are ready for a new offensive.”

According to official data, there are currently 10,000 mobilized Russian servicemen, 170 tanks, 200 armored fighting vehicles and 100 mortars on the territory of Belarus.

However, Silkin also noted there are only about 4,000 servicemen in Belarus near the Ukrainian border. As such, the probability of a repeated invasion of Ukraine is very low, although it cannot be completely ruled out. For now this is not enough for an offensive, he added.

At the same time, the military records suggest that Belarus is preparing to receive additional personnel.

According to the calculations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), there should be about 20 thousand Russian soldiers for a possible offensive.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

On Oct. 27, the AFU General Staff reported that Belarus might be preparing for an escalation. Nevertheless, there is no threat of an attack on Kyiv yet, as the Kremlin seems to be interested in other objectives.

Belarus has been conducting exercises for several months, apparently to demonstrate a semblance of active participation in the war in Ukraine.