Forbes Claims Ukrainian Troops Risk Encirclement Near Pokrovsk – But Is the Situation That Dire?

Forbes analyst David Axe reports that the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk poses a significant threat to Ukrainian troops south of the Pokrovsk, endangering crucial supply routes. According to Axe, Russian forces have bypassed Ukrainian defenses between the village of Memryk and the Vovcha River, located three miles east of Memryk.

In early July, Russian forces launched near-daily assaults west of the town of Pokrovsk. Despite suffering heavy losses, they managed to advance 12 to 20 kilometers (8 to 12 miles) over two months, creating a salient of Ukrainian defenses. This exposed salient juts eastward into the Russian line, and with a few decisive maneuvers, it could become a trap for hundreds of Ukrainian troops, Forbes reported.

The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies has warned that if the 25th Airborne Brigade, which defends the village on the salient’s northern corner with its German-made Marder fighting vehicles, fails to halt the Russians near Ukrainsk, the Ukrainian troops could be encircled.

According to Forbes, parts of at least four Ukrainian brigades risk being surrounded by Russian forces south of Pokrovsk.

However, a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have achieved partial success near Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage published on Sept. 2 shows Ukrainian troops regaining control of positions in southwestern Novohrodivka, southeast of Pokrovsk. The report also says that this recapture occurred as Russian forces continued to advance in other areas along the front.

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Russian breakthrough in Vuhledar would create a pincer into Ukrainian lines alongside the Pokrovsk salient

As reported by Kyiv Post, Russian forces have launched a new offensive in their ongoing Donbas campaign, targeting the industrial city of Vuhledar with air strikes, artillery bombardments, and mass armored assaults.

On Sept. 2, Ukrainian troops defending fortifications around Vuhledar, established in mid-2022 and continuously reinforced since, reported being overwhelmed by intense Russian carpet bombing and subsequent frontal assaults by infantry in armored transporters.

According to the 72nd Mechanized Brigade’s Telegram channel, the Russian attacks were among the most intense and heavily armed ones in over a year. Pro-Russian milbloggers citing sources in attacking units reported that, on Saturday and Sunday, Russian infantry managed to breach and capture key positions defending the industrial site Coal Mine Number One, northeast of the city.

A breakthrough in Vuhledar could create a pincer movement into Ukrainian lines alongside the Pokrovsk salient, potentially undermining the AFU’s efforts to hold the Donbas region, as pro-Moscow “combat correspondent” Semyon Pegov reported Monday.

Pegov indicated that Russian forces had launched assaults south of Pokrovsk, with their combat group now fully engaged in Vuhledar. He suggested that if the Russians captured Vuhledar, they would gain access to a vast operational area free of minefields and significant enemy defenses, potentially enabling them to advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia.

As of Sept. 3, Russian mechanized attacks in the Vuhledar sector are ongoing but have diminished in intensity compared to previous days, reported junior sergeant Stanislav Bunyatov, commander of the 24th Aidar Assault Battalion, on his Telegram channel.

Bunyatov later updated his assessment, stating: “The movements of the f**kers in the Vuhledar sector are very discouraging for us. All that now restrains the enemy from rushing to the northwest of Vuhledar are natural reservoirs.”

Bunyatov said that there are sufficient crossings near these reservoirs, and if they are not adequately monitored, Russian troops might manage to bypass them.

He suggested that, based on current trends, after securing the main positions through mechanized assaults, the Russians are likely to expand their control over the Kashlahach River, eventually moving additional equipment into the area.

Bunyatov also highlighted that the era of indiscriminate Russian assaults appears to be ending. The current Russian attacks, while still heavy, seem to be more strategically planned, with losses and reserves carefully calculated in advance.

A Ukrainian retreat may already be underway

Forbes reports that a Ukrainian retreat may already be underway and could be a wise decision. The Conflict Intelligence Team suggests withdrawing before Russian forces cut off supply and retreat routes, allowing Ukrainian troops to reposition and fortify new lines a few miles west.

Abandoning the salient would mean losing 30 square miles to the Russians but could save entire battalions. Optimistic assessments note a possible slowdown in the Russian advance around Pokrovsk, which might give Ukrainians the opportunity to reinforce their defenses and logistics.

This slowdown is plausible given the heavy Russian casualties – potentially tens of thousands – sustained over 20 miles from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk.

“While the Russian attackers still outnumber the Ukrainian defenders as much as four to one, the Russians’ losses have sapped their momentum,” according to Forbes. “But Ukrainian positions around Pokrovsk are fragile.”

The general staff in Kyiv is managing both the defense of Pokrovsk and a surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region that began in early August. With limited troops, losing four brigades could be disastrous, but a successful evacuation could strengthen and shorten Ukrainian lines, Forbes noted.

The Conflict Intelligence Team believes that stabilizing the front line by fall is possible: “After the Russian army exhausts its offensive potential, the front line is likely to come to a standstill.”

General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the AFU, visited frontline units in the Pokrovsk sector on Sunday. Meeting with personnel from three combat brigades, he described the situation as “extremely tough,” saying that the Russian forces are deploying all available resources to breach Ukrainian defenses.

Syrsky praised the “heroic” efforts of AFU units under intense pressure and assured that reinforcements and supplies were being directed to support these critical defenses.

Recent reports highlight near-record losses of Russian troops and equipment, with new data indicating some of the most intense fighting of the war is occurring in Ukraine’s east and north. Military analyst Agil Rusamzade from Baku reported a 24 percent spike in engagements over the past week.

According to Icelandic military researcher Ragnar Gudmundsson, the current combat intensity is matched only by a few instances throughout the war since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

In response, President Vladimir Putin, speaking to state-controlled media in Tuva on Monday, vowed that Russian assaults in the Donbas would persist and intensify. “We are now capturing square kilometers of territory,” he said. “Russian forces are advancing at speeds that we have not seen in Donbas for a long time.”