‘Exact Reasons Will Be Known Only After Investigation’ – Ukraine at War Update for Aug. 30

The Moscow Times reported on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay an official visit to Mongolia on Sept. 3, marking his first visit to a country that adheres to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) statutes.

In March of 2023, following an investigation of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian commissioner for children’s rights, for the violations of such human rights during their then-yearlong unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Chief among those violations is the illegal deportation to Russia of Ukrainian children, a figure that in March 2023 stood at 19,000 boys and girls, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Mongolia ratified the Rome Statute in 2022, which serves as a sort of constitution of the ICC. The international body elected a Mongolian representative to the ICC in 2023.

Article 59 of the Statute reads that: “A State Party which has received a request for provisional arrest, or for arrest and surrender shall immediately take steps to arrest the person in question in accordance with its laws.”

The Kremlin’s press office said that Putin will visit Mongolia at the invitation of its president Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh to commemorate the 1939 Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japan in the early stages of World War II.

Moscow did not mention the possibility of his arrest during his visit to Ulaanbaatar, noting only that the two countries would be discussing ways to strengthen their “strategic partnership.” Mongolia remains almost exclusively dependent on Russia for energy, and its largest trade partner by far is China, which has not opposed Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Last year, Putin skipped the BRICS summit in South Africa, which is also a member of the ICC. According to Kyiv's state news outlet Ukrinform, officials in Johannesburg asked the Russian president “privately and then publicly” not to attend the event. He sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead.

Could the F-16 downed in Ukraine on Monday have been hit by friendly fire?

The Voice of America in Ukraine quoted an anonymous military official on Thursday that the staff leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is looking into various possibilities of the crash of a Western-donated F-16 fighter aircraft on Monday within its home territory, including the possibility of friendly fire from Ukrainian air defenses.

Speaking to the radio outlet on condition of anonymity, the official said that various possibilities are being considered, including friendly fire, a technical malfunction, and pilot error.

“But the exact reasons will be known only after the completion of the investigation,” he said.

An official statement from the AFU’s General Staff noted only that “communication was lost” with an F-16 aircraft while it was approaching the next target. “As it turned out later, the plane had crashed, and the pilot was killed,” the statement read.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing comments from an unnamed US official, said the incident was likely caused by pilot error, after the fighter jet went down amid a massive volley of Russian missile launches targeting the Ukrainian power grid on Monday.

The Pentagon referred the WSJ to the Ukrainian Air Force for further comments, but the latter “wouldn’t confirm the crash or the status of the pilot.”

Russian oil company profits down 22 percent in six months, car dealerships down 46 percent

The profits of Russian companies have been in free fall this year, the Moscow Times reported Thursday, showing massive drops in the steel, coal, and oil industries in particular, and four times lower across the economy as a whole.

Annual profits across the Russian economy dropped from 2.4 trillion rubles ($26 million) in June 2023 to 860 billion ($9.3 million) in June 2024.

Leading the way was the coal industry, as Russian mining companies have lost almost all of their export markets because of sanctions stemming from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The industry went from a profit in 2023 of the equivalent of $3 billion to a loss of $77 million in 2024.

Moscow Times reports that sanctions also hit steel producers hard, as the industry lost nine percent of its profits over the past six months.

Profits of oil refineries, which have also had to contend with about a dozen Ukrainian attacks over the past year, dropped by 22 percent, while car dealerships registered among the most drastic declines, at a 46 percent drop.

CNN's interview with the US Democratic presidential candidate produced no discussion of Ukraine or Russia.

On Thursday, the Democratic candidate for US president, Vice President Kamala Harris, appeared for her first major interview since assuming the party’s mantle from President Joe Biden. Harris answered questions from CNN anchor Dana Bash about her domestic policy position changes and how she felt about the endorsement from Biden. Harris was not asked about nor did she say anything about foreign policy.

Bash pressed Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Trump campaign allegations: Walz’s on his retirement from 24 years of military service and Harris’ stances on illegal immigration matters. Apart from an opening question on what Harris would do on the first day of her administration to curb inflation, the questions and answers revolved around the bitter tone of American politics and character attacks from Republicans.

Those who tuned in to learn more about how a Harris-Walz administration may differ from the Biden-Harris policies on the wars in Gaza and Ukraine will have to wait until at least the presidential debate planned for Sept. 10, to be held in Philadelphia, in the tightly contested state of Pennsylvania.

Early-voting, mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 elections could be cast as early as next week.