Russian tanks and infantry backed by powerful artillery and air strikes captured a key settlement and gained new ground in the eastern Donbas sector on Tuesday, according to field and media reports.
Ukrainian troops fighting at a 4-to-1 firepower disadvantage were widely reported to have abandoned Novohrodivka, a sizable town with a pre-war population of 14,000, after failing to halt frontal assaults by Kremlin forces in three days of urban fighting.
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However, by Wednesday morning Ukraine’s military had not officially acknowledged the loss.
Ukrainian mainstream and social media on Wednesday said Kyiv’s troops had been pushed out of Novohrodivka. The news magazine Focus, citing frontline reports, said Ukrainian commanders were attempting to construct new defense lines centered on a coal mining slag heap to the west, but Russian assaults were continuing.
Russian information platforms widely confirmed capture of Novohrodivka, calling it a clear victory and proof the Kremlin’s Donbas offensive is gaining momentum. The widely read and Moscow-loyal Dva Mayora Telegram information platform reported to more than a half million followers: “The pace of our attacks is accelerating.”
The Washington DC-based Institute for Study of War (ISW) in a Tuesday situation update said: “Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk.”
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 20, 2024
Total Russian control of Novohrodivka could not be fully confirmed from independent sources, but there was no question Kremlin forces had advanced two kilometers in recent days and pushed strong forces in the town deep into Ukrainian defenses struggling to hold their positions, that analysis said.
Some Ukrainian milbloggers, without offering evidence, claimed evacuation of Novohrodivka by Kyiv’s troops was panicked and defenders abandoned weapons and left in a rout. The ISW report said that there was evidence at least some Ukrainian forces had fallen back in good order.
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday said Russian commanders were ignoring losses in attempts to swamp Ukrainian positions with men and machines.
“Sometimes it happens that where there are three [Russian] brigades, there is no difference between three or five brigade... the Russian assault troops have no way of not going forward, because there are blocking detachments behind them that will shoot attackers if they retreat,” Zelensky told reporters at a public forum in Kyiv.
Orders had been given to transfer troops to the region to shore up defenses, and other steps were being taken to bring the Russian attacks to a halt, the Ukrainian leader said.
Located on the strategically important E50 highway about halfway between the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk and the Ukrainian-controlled city of Pokrovsk, Novohrodivka had been a possible strongpoint for Ukrainian forces to halt the main effort of a relentless Russian offensive launched in May.
Some Ukrainian media outlets on Wednesday were openly critical of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) loss of the town in 72 hours, compared with bitter AFU resistance in cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which cost the Kremlin months of time and thousands of casualties to capture.
The high-profile Ukrainian military journalist Yuriy Butusov in a Wednesday editorial said Ukrainian defenses faced collapse: “The situation in the Pokrovsk sector is no longer critical, the situation is already catastrophic. Despite Zelensky’s promise, no decent fortifications were built there. Now there is a complete loss of control on the operational and tactical levels.”
The pro-Moscow milblogger RybarZ in a Tuesday post reported that Kremlin forces advanced 1.4 kilometers overnight and also captured the nearby villages of Memryk and Marinivka against no resistance, he wrote.
He also reported Russian forces had “liberated” the village of Kostyantynivka (not the city), further south in the Vuhledar sector, in another successful attack.
Kyiv military analytical group uacontrolmap confirmed the Russian capture of Kostyantynivka and weakening Ukrainian defenses in the sector. Kremlin forces are taking heavy and at times horrific losses to gain ground, but the assaults are relentless. Russian attacks are succeeding and the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is “rapidly deteriorating,” the platform said.
US analyst Donald Hill in a Tuesday review of Russia’s offensive into the Donbas said the Pokrovsk and adjacent Avdiivka sectors “remain the absolute Russian focus. Indeed, the [Russian Army] Group Tsentr is assaulting with – de-facto – two combined arms armies including all the elements of the 1st, 15th, 30th and 114th MRBs, the complete 27th Motor-Rifle Division and the 90th Tank Division, and the 201st Military Base, plus scores of mobik-battalions [poorly-trained reservists] spent to re-fill demolished units.”
“The VKS [Russian Air Force] is in possession of complete aerial superiority over this part of Ukraine. In addition to something like 4:1 Russian advantage in troops, artillery, and FPVs,” Hill said.
Speaking to reporters by video link on Tuesday, Ukrainian army commander Oleksandr Syrsky said military intelligence has estimated the Kremlin plans to concentrate 50,000 to 60,000 men for its Donbas offensive. Roughly one of every three combat engagements along the Russo-Ukrainian War’s entire fighting front, are taking place in the Pokrovsk sector, Syrsky said.
The situation in the Donbas sector was “extremely difficult,” Syrsky said.
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