Despite the Ukrainian military’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has not only not transferred troops from its offensive toward the Donetsk region city of Pokrovsk, but also reinforced them, according to a report by The Economist.
Citing sources within Ukrainian security forces, the report says that while Russia has redeployed troops from other sections of the eastern front, it has chosen to strengthen its forces around Pokrovsk.
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Ukrainian commanders attribute the Russian advance to various factors. Some cite a shortage of shells, with the Russians reportedly firing up to ten times more than the Ukrainians, some reporting inadequate training for newly mobilized troops. Others point to Russian tactics, including small infantry assaults, glide bombs, and new types of electronic warfare.
However, exhaustion and manpower shortages appear to be the main issues. Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko disclosed that Ukrainian troops are outnumbered 4:1 and are not getting any rest, with some soldiers staying on the front lines for 30 to 40 days at a time, often in cramped foxholes inches from death.
Ukraine’s recent offensive into Russian territory has sparked mixed feelings among its forces. “Dublin,” a fighter attached to the 59th Brigade southeast of Pokrovsk, told The Economist that early successes briefly lifted morale, but this was short lived as the hope that Russia would move troops from Pokrovsk was dashed.
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Instead, Ukraine has redeployed special forces units to Kursk and is reinforcing the Pokrovsk front with untested formations. “The Russians have figured things out and aren’t taking the bait,” Dublin added.
The defenders of Pokrovsk are hesitant to predict how long they can hold out. While the Russian advance has slowed since Aug. 19, according to Oleksandr, a drone commander with the 110th Brigade, the threat is still looming.
“The Russians have a habit of pouncing on weak spots to devastating effect,” he said, suggesting it may only be a matter of time before Pokrovsk faces the same fate as Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
Control of Pokrovsk could allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to claim a military victory, which he could take into political negotiations. However, much will depend on whether Ukraine can retain the territory it has gained in Russia as a bargaining chip in future talks, the Economist says.
The offensive near Pokrovsk and Toretsk, 50 km (31 miles) to the east in the Donetsk region, remains a priority for Russia, as reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To protect the Kursk region, Moscow is reportedly transferring forces from less significant sections of the front.
A source close to the Kremlin confirmed to Bloomberg that the Russian command has decided against transferring significant forces from the Donbas front to the Kursk region. The source also mentioned that conscripts might be used to defend the Kursk region, despite previous promises by Russian authorities not to send conscripts to battle.
Following the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive on the Kursk region, Russia’s advance on Pokrovsk has accelerated, however progress has slowed in other areas, according to an analysis by the Russian Agency media outlet.
The DeepState project reported that the Russian military is currently positioned approximately 11 km (7 miles) from Pokrovsk, where the evacuation of civilians is ongoing.
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