Something is definitely changing in respect to the Ukrainian strategy in its war with Russia.
Yes, all the focus has been on the new Ukrainian INVASION of Russia in Kursk. But, [there have also been] major Ukrainian long-range strikes against significant Russian military assets in Lipetsk, Murmansk, Moscow, St Petersburg, Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, et al.
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The Ukrainians seem to be making good use of the surge in Western resources after
Congress finally signed off on the US$61 billion financing package for Ukraine back in April.
Here there is a sense of spend it while you have it and aim to maximize pressure on Putin and show the West that with the resources that Ukraine can win.
Perhaps, and as with Kursk, it is about maximizing leverage in the run up to US elections, and possible negotiations with Russia given all the talk about a Trump presidency forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table.
The Ukrainians are also testing Putin and also the US red lines.
Putin’s red lines for retaliation - and so far, he has not done much in response to the invasion of Kursk. And US red lines around using US kit to launch longer range missile strikes into Russia. My sense is that the US/West is now taking a leaf out of the Putin playbook of plausible deniability, and letting the Ukrainians get away with as much as they can, while they can.
On Putin his failure to really respond that much to the Kursk invasion and the latest long-range attacks begs the question a) whether he has the capability, and/or b) whether he is also in two minds now how to play the US election. Is he waiting for a Trump win and does not want to rock the boat too much before then - an all-out Russian attack on military/civilian assets might risk a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine which might even put it even beyond the pale for Trump to sit down and negotiate with Putin. Or perhaps likewise, Putin might be fearful of overly annoying a potential Harris presidency and risking then a Harris presidency doubling down on support for Ukraine. We are seeing indecision from Putin - weird that he took a tourist trip to Chechnya this week to see his Tesla Truck driving warlord buddy Kadyrov.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 4, 2024
The momentum has swung back and forth over the past two and half years many times, and at this point in time, Ukraine is back on the front foot.
Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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