Russian General Staff Ignored Intel Reports Predicting Incursion into Kursk Region

Russian intelligence had warned of a potential Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region two weeks before it occurred, but the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, led by General Valery Gerasimov, chose to ignore these warnings, according to a Bloomberg report citing Kremlin sources.

Pro-Kyiv forces stormed into Russia's southwestern Kursk region on Tuesday morning, deploying around 1,000 troops and more than two dozen armored vehicles and tanks, according to Russian military sources.

It appears to be the most significant Ukrainian cross border attack since the war began, with independent analysts suggesting Kyiv's troops had advanced more than 10 kilometers into Russia.

Despite the intelligence reports, which detailed the buildup of Ukrainian forces near the border, the General Staff did not inform President Vladimir Putin of the situation.

As a result, the Russian military was unprepared and Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate deeper into Russian territory.

As “Important Stories” noted, the Bloomberg report aligns with information provided by the Cheka-OGPU and Rybar telegram channels. They report that Esedulla Abachev, deputy commander of the Leningrad Military District, also informed Gerasimov about the Ukrainian plans to cut off the Belgorod region.

Gerasimov, however, dismissed these warnings, accusing the intelligence service of spreading “alarmist information.”

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While there is no immediate indication that Gerasimov will be removed from his position, there is growing discontent within the Kremlin regarding his leadership.

Criticism of his performance along with that of the former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was the cause of the aborted mutiny led by the then-leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023.

Gerasimov, who has led the General Staff since 2012 and has been commanding Russian forces in Ukraine since 2023, had previously assured Putin on television that Russian forces had halted the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region.