Russia Seizes Almost 200 km2 of Ukraine in July: AFP Count

Russia consolidated its territory gains in eastern Ukraine in July, taking control of almost 200 square kilometers (77 square miles), according to an AFP analysis on Wednesday.

The analysis, based on data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shows an increase over the previous month but a big slowdown compared to May, when Russian forces launched a ground offensive in the border region of Kharkiv, which has since been stopped.

In that month, Russian forces seized 449 square kilometers, an average of 14.5 square kilometers per day, their biggest monthly gains since March 2022, just after President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of 2024, Russia has conquered 1,246 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, well above the 584 square kilometers seized over the whole of 2023.

But that represents just 0.2 percent of Ukraine’s territory in 2014, when Ukraine descended into war as pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine began to fight for independence. And it has not resulted in a decisive breakthrough for Moscow’s forces.

From July 1 to July 30, Russian forces conquered 198 square kilometers or an average of 6.6 square kilometers per day.

More than three-quarters, or 155 square kilometers, are in the eastern region of Donetsk, parts of which have been controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists since 2014.

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Russian attacks on Toretsk have intensified since July, causing the local population to plummet by about 90%, from 34,000 before the war to 3,400, according to the local administration.

The region is a springboard for Russia as it seeks to seize Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, as they prepare attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In June, Russia had seized 129 square kilometers or 4.3 square kilometers per day.

Since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia has taken 65,776 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

If territory already annexed by Russia such as the Crimean peninsula and eastern zones already under Russian control before the invasion are included, Russian now occupies 107,956 square kilometers or 18 percent of Ukraine according to its internationally recognized borders.

AFP’s calculations are based on information provided by a daily ISW report that relies on public information published by the two warring sides and satellite images.