Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to posture himself as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine despite Putin's rejection of mediation or serious negotiations. Orban is likely aiming to shift Western focus towards possible peace negotiations as part of his overarching effort to undermine European support for Ukraine.
- Orban's and others' calls for negotiations and Ukraine's peace formula, are distinct efforts with different aims, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated he is not interested in any negotiated agreements short of Ukraine's capitulation.
- Ukrainian forces struck energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai with drones on the night of July 5 to 6.
- Iran announced on July 6 that Iran and Russia signed a bank agreement on July 4 enabling Russia and Iran to trade in the Russian ruble and Iranian rial.
- The Russian government continues efforts to isolate the Russian people from material it considers antithetical to state interests and ideology.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka.
- Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to increase monetary incentives to recruit contract soldiers (kontraktniki).
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Authors: Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan.
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The June 19 defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea included a promise to provide military assistance to one another – within days Pyongyang said it was sending troops to Ukraine.
Jun. 26