Forbes has reported that Ukraine may soon exhaust its top-tier air-defense missiles due to their role in shooting down Russian fighter jets.
The Ukrainian Air Force claims to have downed 10 Russian warplanes in just ten days, including nine of the Russian Air Force’s top Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter bombers, along with a rare Beriev A-50 radar plane.
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According to Forbes, this represents a significant blow to Russian forces, as they struggle to keep up with production due to foreign sanctions, managing only a couple of dozen new warplanes a year. The Russians are losing jets at a rate 20 times faster than they can replace them.
“How the Ukrainians are shooting down so many jets is unclear,” the publication reported.
One possibility is that the Ukrainian Air Force has deployed American-made Patriot missile launchers within mobile air-defense groups strategically positioned along the 600-mile front line of Russia’s two-year full-scale war on Ukraine. This allows them to ambush Russian jets with 90-mile-range PAC-2 missiles before swiftly relocating to avoid retaliation.
However, the downing of the A-50 plane at approximately 120 miles suggests the involvement of a longer-range missile system. The Ukrainian air force may have brought out Cold War-era S-200 missiles (NATO: SA-5 “Gammon”) from long-term storage, Forbes pointed out.
Additionally, it appears that the Ukrainians have moved some of their 25-mile-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries closer to the front line. This was evident when Russian forces discovered and destroyed one of the first NASAMS launchers near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on or before Monday.
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Forbes speculates that Ukraine’s air-defense success may be attributed to deploying all these systems and others more aggressively.
The risk in this strategy is that the Patriot and NASAMS batteries use US-made missiles, and Ukraine reportedly hasn’t received any ammunition from the United States since late December.
“In other words, Ukraine eventually – possibly soon – will run out of its best air-defense missiles,” Forbes noted.
Forbes reports that Russian force actions, or lack thereof, could also contribute to their increased aviation losses. After the costly victory over the Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, where they ran out of ammunition, the Russian military is now advancing against other depleted Ukrainian garrisons.
Taking advantage of this situation, the Russian Air Force has intensified its sorties, flying closer to the front line and using glide bombs to suppress Ukrainian troops for their ground force advancement.
As explained by the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, this tactic has resulted in more Russian aircraft losses but provides their ground troops with a significant firepower advantage.
Furthermore, the increase in Russian attack sorties has made Ukrainian air defenders more vigilant, resulting in more successful interceptions of Russian planes.
Another factor aiding the Ukrainian defense is the diminishing radar coverage of the Russian Air Force. With the destruction of one A-50 radar plane last year and the downing of two more this year, the Ukrainians have significantly reduced the effectiveness of the Russian radar network, creating blind spots for Russian pilots
“The Ukrainian Air Force apparently aims to use its last few Patriot and NASAMS missiles to deplete the Russian Air Force and prevent future surges in bombing sorties,” Forbes added.
Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force is intensifying its bombing campaigns against Ukrainian garrisons, aiming to weaken their defenses and assist Russian ground troops in gaining territory. This strategy is employed before the Sukhoi squadrons face depletion due to a lack of available planes and experienced pilots, and other aircrew and ground crew.
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