Ukraine Counteroffensive Update for Oct 19 (Europe Edition): 'Another Russian Su-25 Destroyed'

Overview:

• Shot-down Ukrainian missile explodes near ammo depot in Sevastopol
• Ukrainian Marines cross the Dnipro and fight their way inland
• Two killed in Russian strike on Ukraine
• Russian forces step up Avdiivka offensive, make gains
• Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory continue

Two killed in Russian strike on Ukraine

Two people died and one was injured when a Russian missile hit an eatery in Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv region late Wednesday, Ukrainian authorities said.

Ukraine's State Emergency Service said the missile had struck a "food establishment" in a residential area in the region at 8:30 pm (1730 GMT).

"Two people died and one person was injured under the rubble," it said on Telegram.

"As a result of the impact, residential buildings and an agricultural enterprise were also damaged," it added.

The governor of Mykolaiv, Vitaliy Kim, wrote earlier on the messaging app that the missile had struck in Stepove, a small village located around 45 kilometres (28 miles) northwest of the city of Mykolaiv.

He said one of those killed was a woman. "The rescuers dislodged her body from under the rubble of the destroyed building," he wrote.

He later said the region had been hit by two explosions, adding that authorities were investigating.

Ukrainian marines continue to push inland from Dnipro River

As reported in detail in Kyiv Post earlier today, Marine brigades from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had crossed the Dnipro River by Wednesday and “captured two villages three to four kilometers inland, but the strength of the bridgehead and Kyiv’s future plans for operations on the left bank of Ukraine’s biggest water obstacle are still unclear.”

According to the ISW, “geolocated footage published on Wednesday indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Pishchanivka (3 km from the Dnipro River) and into Poyma (4 km from the river). What the ISW described as a “prominent Russian milblogger” claimed that a Ukrainian sabotage group is still operating in Pishchanivka as of Wednesday afternoon. 

Other Topics of Interest

NATO Preps Long-Term Measures to Support Kyiv Amid Potential Trump Victory

These measures have been in development for several months but gained urgency after President Joe Biden‘s underwhelming performance in a televised debate with Trump.

Russian sources conceded that “amphibious combat teams from Ukraine’s 35th and 36th Marine Brigades launched a crossing of Ukraine’s biggest waterway from jump-off positions near the right bank town of Pridnistrovske in the early morning hours.” Military bloggers reported that these teams continue to dig in and slowly advance.

Aftermath of Ukraine’s Devastating ATACMS Strike on Berdyansk Airfield Revealed in Satellite Photos

Satellite images show the impact of Ukraine’s first-ever ATACMS missile strikes on the Russian-occupied Berdyansk airfield.

The images – captured by the US-based Earth imaging company Planet Labs and reviewed by investigative journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – reveal substantial damage, particularly on a section of the airfield's runway that had been used for helicopter deployments.

Read the full story here.

Ukrainian missiles targeting Crimean airfield shot down

Russian air defenses downed a missile headed for the Crimean port of Sevastopol, AFP reported, citing a Telegram post by the region’s governor Mikhail Razvozhayev.

“Our military is repelling a missile attack,” Razvozhayev said. “According to preliminary data, air defense shot down one missile near the Belbek airfield. Work continues.” 

It was unclear as of Wednesday night whether the missiles used in the attack were from the ATACMS newly acquired from the United States. Ukrainian forces used those missiles to some success overnight on Monday-Tuesday, destroying Russian helicopters in the Berdyansk airfield.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Wednesday that satellite imagery suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Berdyansk airfield substantially damaged Russian aircraft and airfield infrastructure, but cannot confirm the extent of the damages, although footage “suggested that it shows at least seven burned-out areas where satellite imagery previously showed various Russian helicopters.”

“Ukrainian military sources previously reported that the Ukrainian strike destroyed nine helicopters, one anti-aircraft missile launcher, special equipment, ammunition depots, and runway infrastructure, but ISW cannot fully confirm these Russian losses with available imagery at this time,” the think-tank analysts wrote.

Yet another SU-25 reported destroyed by AFU

Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) of the “Tavriya” Operations Strategic Group reported the destruction of another Russian Sukhoi Su-25 (NATO: Frogfoot) ground attack aircraft, which would bring the total to four such aircraft destroyed within a week.

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, the group tallied the day’s decimation at 16 pieces of Russian military equipment, including the attack plane and four artillery systems.

UPDATE: The total is now 5.

Operations: Avdiivka

Russian forces recorded more gains on Wednesday around the town of Avdiivka, a hotly contested partisan stronghold north of the occupied Donetsk city and a critical focus of Moscow’s strategy.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces attacked positions north of the E50 highway and “advanced along the local Soborna street towards the Tsarska Okhota restaurant on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka,” the ISW reported.

More than just a restaurant, the Tsaraska Okhota is a “heavily fortified position,” the ISW said, that local Russian forces are using as a launching pad for their attacks.

Avdiivka City Head Vitaly Barabash noted that Russian forces appear to be regrouping near Avdiivka, and warned that there will likely be a new stage of fighting in the coming days.

Notably, Russian soldiers in the area have been kvetching about counterbattery fire issues and “poor sanitary conditions,” the ISW cited military bloggers as saying. Plus, they added, the relentless Ukrainian artillery fire on their trenches continues to be a problem.

UPDATE: Russia Still Trying to Encircle Avdiivka, ‘Probing AFU Defenses for Weaknesses’

More Ukrainian drones downed over Russian territory

Once again, the Russian Ministry of Defense is reporting that its air defenses are knocking out Ukrainian drones over Russian skies.

The Ministry claims that Russia destroyed 28 drones on Tuesday night over the border regions of Kursk and Belgorod, as well as in the Black Sea.  

These kinds of attacks, well behind enemy lines and across the Ukraine-Russia border, have increased in recent weeks.