Ukraine Summer Offensive Update Sept 3: ‘Kyiv’s Surprise Offensives’

Overview

• Ukraine planning surprise offensives
• Russia signs up 280,000 contract soldiers this year, Medvedev claims
• Russia “forcibly drafting migrants”

Ukraine planning surprise offensives

Ukrainian Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy has claimed Kyiv’s troops have breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, and that “everything is ahead of us.”

In an interview with the Guardian, he said: “We are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line.

“The enemy is pulling up reserves, not only from Ukraine but also from Russia. But sooner or later, the Russians will run out of all the best soldiers. This will give us an impetus to attack more and faster. Everything is ahead of us.”

When asked about offensive actions in other areas, the Guardian wrote that Tarnavskiy said “Ukraine was preparing other surprise offensives to drain Moscow’s forces.”

He added: “To be successful in one direction, you always need to mislead the enemy. The main goal of the [offensive near the] village of Velyka Novosilka had a different aim.”

Russia signs up 280,000 contract soldiers this year, Medvedev claims

Russia has signed up 280,000 contracted soldiers so far this year, former President Dmitry Medvedev has said.

"According to the Ministry of Defence, since Jan. 1, about 280,000 people have been accepted into the ranks of the Armed Forces on a contract basis," including reservists, state news agency TASS quoted Medvedev as saying.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Earlier this year Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said he would make “major changes” to the country’s armed forces, boosting personnel to 1.5 million troops in the face of huge losses in Ukraine.

Russia “forcibly drafting migrants”

In an indicator of the problems face by the Kremlin in recruiting enough troops, the British Ministry of Defense (MoD) has said Russia is forcibly drafting migrants to fight in Ukraine.

In its latest daily assessment, the MoD wrote: “Uzbek migrant builders in Mariupol have reportedly had their passports confiscated upon arrival and been coerced to join the Russian military. 

“There are at least six million migrants from Central Asia in Russia, which the Kremlin likely sees as potential recruits.”

Operations – Luhansk region

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on September 2 and recently advanced, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

Geolocated footage published on September 1 and 2 shows that Russian forces advanced south of Vilshana (14km northeast of Kupyansk) and southeast of Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove). 

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces captured several Ukrainian positions north of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk), west of Svatove toward the Oskil River, and near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk).

Operations – Donetsk region

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on September 2 and advanced, the ISW reported.

Geolocated footage published on September 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced near Klishchiivka, although these gains are likely not recent.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on September 1 that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes near Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka (all 7-13km southwest of Bakhmut), which Malyar characterized as the center of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction.

Operations – Zaporizhia region

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 2 and reportedly advanced. 

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction. 

Russian milbloggers who have previously maintained that Russian forces hold positions in the southern part of Robotyne claimed that Russian forces withdrew from the southern outskirts of the settlement to unspecified positions further south.

Another milblogger claimed that fighting is ongoing in forest areas south of Robotyne.