Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for August 16: ‘Urozhaine Officially Liberated’

Snapshot

Urozhaine recaptured. Grinding Ukrainian gains at Robotyne (western Zaporizhzhia region, southern front) and Dibrova (Luhansk region, northern front). Elite air-assault unit deployed in south. Reports of pontoons across the Dnipro.

Analysis

The 2,000-person 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which is stacked with Marder and Stryker fighting vehicles and Challenger 2 tanks, rolled into action around Robotyne, in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region in the last few days, according to analyst David Axe of Forbes.

“The 82nd Brigade and its sister air-assault unit, the 46th Brigade, were some of the last major units that the Ukrainian general staff was holding in reserve. In finally sending those formations into battle, the Ukrainians could significantly boost their firepower along one of the main axes of the counteroffensive – the one stretching 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Russian-occupied Robotyne to occupied Melitopol, just north of the Black Sea coast,” Axe wrote.

“If the Ukrainian marines’ [recent] experience in Urozhaine is any indication, the surge of air-assault troops around Robotyne could result in rapid gains for Kyiv’s forces,” Axe added.

Operational Aspects on the Southern Front

Kyiv announced on Wednesday morning that its forces had liberated the settlement of Urozhaine in the industrial Donetsk region.

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“Urozhaine was liberated. Our defenders are entrenched at the outskirts. The offensive continues,” Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar announced in a statement on social media.

Earlier, the head of the Donetsk regional military administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, provided an update on the situation in Urozhaine, noting the village is destroyed.

“Staromaiorske and Urozhaine were actually destroyed by enemy artillery using rocket salvo systems,” he said.

Satellite image analyst Brady Africk revealed that Russian forces are continuing to build fortifications south of the current line of contact, including near Urozhaine.

Geolocated footage posted on August 14 indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) advanced into Robotyne, and further Russian and Ukrainian reporting published on Aug. 15 suggests that Ukrainian forces have committed additional counteroffensive brigades to the western Zaporizhzhia region, ISW reported.

Ukrainian milblogger, Deep State, said: “Heavy battles are raging near Robotyne and Verbove. There is no clear outcome because the situation is extremely dynamic. For example, there are positions that are changing hands.”

Another Ukrainian milblogger, War Zone+, said: “Immediately after the introduction of reserves [including the 82nd], successes appeared. The AFU advanced along the entire bridgehead and entered the settlement, Robotyne, having taken positions in the north of the village and in the landings to the west. Also, the Russians were thrown back near Verbove. We are waiting for clarification.”

Pro-Russian milblogger, Rybar, said: “In the Robotyne area, the enemy is actively advancing, pushing through the defenses. The AFU occupies strongholds to the northeast, and individual sabotage groups penetrate the settlement itself. To the north of the village, a Stryker armored personnel carrier and a Marder infantry fighting vehicle were destroyed for the first time, which indicates the input of Ukrainian reserves into battle.”

ISW further reported that AFU Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is advancing slowly in southern Ukraine because Ukrainian forces must overcome a three-echeloned Russian defensive line. Chernyk stated that the Russian line of defense includes a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers wide; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources. Chernyk noted that Ukrainian counterbattery measures are especially important to prevent Russian artillery from targeting Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment.

Operational Aspects on the Northern Front

Coordinates published by a Russian milblogger on Aug. 15 indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Dibrova (7 kilometers southwest of Kreminna), according to ISW. Russian forces have been strongly pushing their own attacks on this front for the past month.

Other Operational Aspects

A pro-Ukrainian milblogger posted that Ukrainian forces have established pontoon bridges across the Dnipro River near Kozachi Laheri, where a raid was undertaken last week, and are reinforcing on the left bank of occupied Kherson region.

Meanwhile, ISW reported pro-Russian milbloggers posting about continued Ukrainian presence at the Antonivka Bridge and Kozachi Laheri.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed a Ukrainian drone attack in Kalyuga region in central Russia.

The regional governor of Bryansk in Russia claimed there were cross-border raids by Ukrainian special forces.

General Developments

President Zelensky said real combat experience should become a priority during the training of the mobilized, following a visit to the southern front. “Real combat experience, modern challenges and trends on the battlefield, fire and maneuver, the skills that our soldiers have and which must be extended to all brigades and made a priority in training centers, especially during the training of the mobilized – [this is what’s needed],” he said on social media.

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