Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for August: ‘The See-Saw Effect’

Snapshot

The war see-sawed with Russian momentum near Kupyansk in the north and Ukrainian momentum near Urozhaine in the south. Russia continued its terroristic missile and artillery attacks on Ukrainian civilian centers, including the second deadly bombing of Zaporizhzhia in two days.

Analysis

The allied invasion at D-Day and then Normandy involved about 2 million personnel and significant air power. From June 6, it took nearly two months for allied forces to advance – against a well-prepared enemy and its fortified defensive positions – about 40 kilometers inland and to capture the key small city of St Lo. The Battle for Saint Lo alone, which ended in late July 1944, claimed 11,000 allied casualties.

General Developments

According to the 06:00 daily update of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Russian forces launched five missile strikes, 61 air strikes, and 70 attacks from MLRS systems at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. The Ukrainian Air Force conducted 10 airstrikes.

Some 100 Ukrainian population centers were hit by Russian artillery or mortar fire, the General Staff reported.

The German Air Force has given the “green light” to the delivery of German Taurus missiles to Ukraine, German media reported.

Ministry of Defense workers in the UK have voted to escalate their strike over a pay dispute, BBC reported. At the relevant plant, Storm Shadow and Brimstone missiles are assembled for Ukraine.

Other Topics of Interest

NATO, Ukraine to Meet Tuesday Over Russian Missile Strike

Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Moscow had hit Ukraine using a new-generation intermediate-range missile -- which he hinted was capable of unleashing a nuclear payload.

Operational Aspects on the Northern Front: Kupyansk

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Russia is concentrating its main efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Kupyansk area of the Kharkiv region.

Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern forces, confirmed to national television that Russian forces were trying to break through in the Kupyansk area. “The situation remains difficult but under control,” he said.

Civilians are being evacuated from over 50 local population settlements.

Prominent pro-Russian milblogger Rybar said on Telegram: “However, despite the tactical successes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it is premature to talk about the imminent assault on [Kupyansk] city.”

Russian forces also continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on Aug. 10 and advanced south of Kreminna, ISW reported. Geolocated footage published on Aug. 9 indicates that Russian forces have advanced south of Kreminna.

Russian strikes against Kharkiv region on killed one civilian and injured two more, Governor Oleh Synyehubov said.

Operational Aspects on the Eastern Front: Bakhmut

“In the Bakhmut sector, on the southern flank, our troops continue offensive operations,” Minister Maliar said. At the same time, she noted, enemy troops unsuccessfully tried to restore the lost position on the outskirts of Klishchiivka.

Operational Aspects on the Southern Front: Urozhaine

“Despite extremely difficult combat conditions and enemy resistance, our troops have partial success in the area of the village of Urozhaine, Donetsk region, which is close to the previously liberated village of Staromaiorske,” Maliar said on Telegram.

Geolocated footage published on August 10 suggests that Ukrainian forces crossed the Mokri Yaly River and advanced eastward into the southwestern outskirts of Urozhaine (9 kilometers south of Velyka Novosilka), ISW reported.

Prominent pro-Russian milblogger Rybar said on Telegram: “Ukrainian formations, during the next ‘meat [grinder] assault,’ were able to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of Urozhaine. Nevertheless, the enemy failed to press its success; an attempt to continue the attack was thwarted by Russian fighters, who continued to hold the southern part of the village.”

At least one person died and 16 people were injured in a Russian missile strike against Zaporizhzhia, Governor Yuri Malashko said. It was the second such attack in two days and the fourth death.

Other Operational Aspects

The Governor of the Russian region of Bryansk reported shelling and casualties.

Explosions and fire were observed at industrial facilities in Odintsovo near Moscow.

Pro-Russian milbloggers said on Telegram that the AFU undertook a drone attack on the occupied Crimean peninsula.