Belarusian Threat Grows

During the early morning hours on Thursday, Russia launched 25 missiles into Ukraine from Belarussian territory. According to reports, the missiles struck objects in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and outside of Kyiv. 

The possibility of Belarus joining the Russian invasion has become a frequent source of discussion during the last few weeks as the threat of Russia descending from the north, along the 1,084 KMs (674 miles) Ukraine-Belarus border, would open up a much wider front in the war – stretching Ukraine’s troops even thinner as they begin a large counteroffensive in the east and south of the country.

During the launch of the February 24 invasion, Russian troops used Belarus as a staging ground from which they launched attacks against several northern Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv.

Recently, videos of Ukrainian military mining and improving the security along the Belarusian border, have been shared across Ukrainian social media channels.

According to two Belarusian opposition sources, who formerly worked among the political leadership in Minsk, neither of whom agreed to be mentioned by name for this article, said that rumors persisted among Belarusian military officers that Belarus could be used to attack northwest Ukraine in the coming weeks. The sources both said that the idea would be to block international assistance, such as weapons, from being ferried between Poland and Lviv. Upon entering Ukraine, the weapons are then transported to the east and west of the nation in order to assist in the fight against Russian aggression.

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Sources indicate that the importation of gasoline, something that is in short supply in Ukraine and no longer produced in-country, following Russia’s shelling of Ukraine’s refineries, would be a strategic target for the Russian and Belarusian soldiers.

According to the Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoschenko, the Volyn region, in the far northwest, bordering both Poland and Belarus, is prepared for any northern provocation.

Tymoshenko wrote on social media that he and his team are “working in Volyn. Talked to our border guards. Everyone is in the line of duty, everyone is ready to repel any attack. The border guards actively cooperate with the regional authorities and other units. This is important because everyone must know the algorithm of actions in case of a hazard.”

Serhiy Lozynsky, Chief of the 6th Border Guard Detachment of Volyn Region Serhiy Lozynsky said that “We were 100% ready on February 24 this year to repel the full-scale invasion by the enemy, eliminate its personnel and equipment. We took a range of serious joint actions with the regional military administration, district administrations and united territorial communities. Everything that could help the enemy invasion has been destroyed. A number of other necessary works were carried out.”

Thus far, Belarus has resisted directly joining the war. According to polling done by Chatham House last month, only 3% of Belarusians said that they supported Belarus’ direct participation in the invasion of Ukraine.