Daily Briefing From Ukraine

·      Top 10 Headlines

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      Infographic of the Day

Headlines

1.    Thirty-six cruise missiles fired by Russia during its latest wave of attacks on Ukraine were destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Force. According to its senior commander, Ukrainian air forces intercepted three Kalibr missiles during the first series of strikes yesterday afternoon, and then 33 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles (of 36 fired) in the early evening.

2.    The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) wants to cut funding for humanitarian aid to Ukraine, according to its spokesman. "Our cost reduction plans apply to all our operations around the world, and in Ukraine, we are carefully evaluating which costs can be cut or optimized," ICRC spokesman Ashil Depre said.

3.    Italy’s parliament formally recognized as genocide the 1930s forced famine of millions of Ukrainians – known as the Holodomor – by the Stalin regime.

4.    President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law to create the State Register of Sanctions. The law is aimed at improving the recovery of assets of sanctioned individuals and legal entities into state revenue.

Other Topics of Interest

‘They Don’t Lead With Mechanized Forces Anymore’ – Ukraine at War Update for Nov. 21

US intends to cancel $4.7B in Kyiv debt, re-open its Embassy there; Washington also announces another $275M for Ukraine along with the controversial release of anti-personnel mines.

5.    President Joe Biden has ordered the US government to begin sharing evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court in The Hague, reported the New York Times.

6.    Russia’s Defense Minister Sergiy Shoigu traveled to North Korea to meet with its dictator.

7.    Russia and Belarus will not be invited to the Paris 2024 Olympics by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), but the issue of their athletes competing under a “neutral” flag remains unresolved. Following the IOC announcement, Ukraine’s Sports Ministry said that the participation for Ukrainians is now prohibited only in competitions where Russians and Belarusians perform "under their national flags, and/or use national symbols, and/or by their public actions or statements express belonging to Russia or Belarus."

8.    NATO condemned Russia's "dangerous and escalatory actions" to block Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea after a meeting of the newly-formed NATO/Ukraine Council.  "[We] also condemned Russia's recent missile attacks on Odesa, Mykolaiv, and other port cities, including Moscow's cynical drone attack on the Ukrainian grain storage facility in the Danube port city of Reni, very close to the Romanian border," the Council’s statement said.

9.    Ukraine’s military warned that Russia has "intensified combat training of surface forces and naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet…[and that] apparently, the Russians are practicing the destruction of civilian ships that will go to and from the ports of Ukraine.”

10.    President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a proposal to the Ukrainian national parliament to approve the extension of martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days.

11.    Ukrainians’ optimism about the future has fallen by nearly 10 percent in the last six months. An established poll found that 52 percent of Ukrainians believe their country is headed in the right direction. In February, the figure was 61 percent.

President Zelensky’s Message

Infographic of the Day

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Increased Ukrainian offensive activity and possible partial breakthrough were reported in Zaporizhzhia, but experts warn against high expectations.

General Developments

Western suggested Ukrainian attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflection in Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort, according to the Institute for the Study of War and the New York Times. Citing two anonymous Pentagon officials, NYT said that the “main thrust” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun in earnest in southern Ukraine. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in his nightly address that Ukrainian forces “had very good results today.”

However, ISW sounded a strong note of caution.

A leading pro-Russian milblogger wrote: “The enemy is preparing for a new phase of attack on our positions. Perhaps more reserves and equipment will be used. In order to gain an advantage during offensive battles, the enemy clicks off one by one our warehouses with ammunition. In addition, several competent senior officers have died in recent months. The ammunition and senior officers must be better protected. In the coming weeks, wait for the resumption of powerful enemy assault operations…At the same time, the situation at the front remains stable but difficult. The enemy continues to put pressure on the Russian defensive lines in Klishchiivka [west of Bakhmut]; the settlement is partially under the control of the enemy.”

Operational Aspects on the Southern Front

Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in the western Zaporizhzhia region on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv, ISW reported. 

ISW wrote: “Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement. Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5 kilometers directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.”

ISW further provided this assessment: “This kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish in pursuit of deeper penetrations, as ISW has previously assessed. The defensive lines that run further south of Robotyne are likely less well-manned than these forward-most positions, considering that Russian forces have likely had to commit a significant portion of available forces to man the first line of defensive positions that are north and east of Robotyne.”

"On the morning of July 26, the enemy resumed intensive offensive operations" near Orikhiv, Russia's defense ministry said in a statement. It added that Ukraine "conducted a massive attack by the forces of three battalions reinforced by tanks". 

A pro-Russian milblogger cited an on-the-ground Russian source: “The enemy from early morning led attacks in the direction of the settlement Robotyne, using a large number of armored vehicles. He tried to swoop into the combat formations of our units defending Robotyne.”

In the border region between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, a pro-Russian milblogger reported: “The enemy made attacks during the day in the direction of Staromaiorske and Urozhayne [along the Mokri Yaly River and in the direction of Mariupol]. The fighting continues in the lands near the outskirts of the villages. The enemy also remained active in the Pryyutne area.”

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces executed a large-scale “bait and switch” ambush of Russian troops, as reported in detail by Kyiv Post.

Both pro-Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian official spokespeople said Ukraine made gains particularly around Klishchiivka to the west of Bakhmut.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that “in the Bakhmut direction, our troops continue to successfully conduct offensive actions on the southern flank around the city of Bakhmut. Fierce fighting continues in the area of ​​the settlements of Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, and Andriivka.”

A pro-Russian milblogger wrote: “At a distance of up to 3 kilometers from Klishchiivka itself, there are two pontoon crossings across the Seversky Donets - Donbas canal. Through these crossings, since last Thursday, an active transfer of reserves of equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been carried out. Just after the transfer of reserves, the intensification of the offensive operations of the enemy began.”

Of the major ambush, an on-the-ground Russian participant wrote: “There are tough fights every day. How did it happen that the guys got into a fire ambush? Most often this is due to a lack of intelligence and intelligence facilities. The enemy is so good with reconnaissance equipment and freedom of movement that he managed to record the entire battle without interference.”

Operational Aspects on Northern Front

The Russian defense ministry said its forces progressed in the direction of Lyman in the eastern Donetsk region and claimed an advance of up to two kilometers. There were some unsubstantiated reports of Russian forces taking three villages, which Ukraine denied.

A pro-Russian milblogger wrote: “In the Luhansk direction, Russian troops established control over Serhiivka and Nadia and expanded the breakthrough... If they manage to take Kopani, which is two kilometers away, then they will gain control over all the dominant heights… In the event of the loss of Kopani, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in an extremely disadvantageous position.”

"We do not confirm this [Russian claim of capturing villages]. The tactical line there has not changed much," said Serhiy Cherevaty, the spokesman of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a comment to CNN.

Malyar said, “The defense forces of Ukraine continue to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the Kupyansk and Lyman areas.”