Daily Briefing From Ukraine

·      Top 5 Headlines

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      Infographic of the Day

Headlines

1.     The last ship to travel under the Black Sea Grain Initiative left Odesa early on Sunday ahead of the deal’s expiration deadline today. Russia has not agreed to register any new ships since June 27 and the initiative will expire unless Moscow agrees to extend it. Russia is again playing brinksmanship with the deal and saying its demands have not been met, including the re-opening of an ammonia pipeline owned by a Putin crony.

2.     Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and occupied Ukrainian territory and have no status under Russian law, a major AP investigation has revealed. This follows Russian President Vladimir Putin signing a decree in May that allows Russia to send people from territories with martial law, which includes all of occupied Ukraine, to those without, such as Russia. This has made it easier to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has happened in multiple cases documented by the AP. “Hundreds are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves,” AP writes. Russia is further planning to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026, according to a Russian government document that AP obtained.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

3.     Redoubling support for Ukraine is the "single best" way to aid the global economy, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday ahead of the G20 finance minister summit in India. She said she would “push back” on criticism there was a trade-off between aid to Ukraine and developing nations. “Ending this war is first and foremost a moral imperative,” she told reporters in Gandhinagar. “But it's also the single best thing we can do for the global economy.” World Bank chief Ajay Banga warned of “deep mistrust... quietly pulling the Global North and South apart [and the Global South is] concerned promised resources will be diverted to Ukraine’s reconstruction.”

4.     Donald Trump, former US President, said on Fox News how he wants to force the Presidents of Ukraine and Russia to conclude a peace agreement if he wins the election. “I know Zelensky very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day.”

5.     As part of his weekend visit to Kyiv, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol agreed to provide Ukraine with security, humanitarian, and reconstruction assistance. “We plan to expand assistance in mine detectors and demining equipment, as Ukraine’s demand for them is desperately large,” a Korean spokesperson said. Additionally, during Presidential talks, Ukraine invited South Korean businesses to invest in the construction of rechargeable battery and electric vehicle plants.

President Zelensky’s Message

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Occupied Crimea heats up with explosions on Kerch Bridge and drone attack on Sevastopol military port. Ukrainian progress in Zaporizhzhia, say Russians. Russia advances in Luhansk, say Ukrainians.

General Developments

Following the NATO Summit which (again) set a timetable for the F-16 training of Ukrainian pilots, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN that “the President has given a green light, and we will allow, permit, support, facilitate and in fact provide the necessary tools for Ukrainians to begin being trained on F-16s, as soon as the Europeans are prepared.”

The UK reported that it has trained 18,000 Ukrainian troops – effectively two divisions – to date and released a video of that program.

“Radish,” a senior Azov commander who was part of the Azovstal defense and recently returned from exile in Turkey, has re-joined his unit.

Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, said in an  interview with CNN, that the Biden administration, after taking office, discovered that the stocks of 155-mm artillery munitions used by howitzers “was relatively low,” but that “we are increasing our capacity to supply ammunition.”

Vladimir Putin said Russia has enough cluster munition to answer if Ukraine was to use the weapons.

The Russian military leadership continued to be subject to changes.

Russia undertook 11 missile strikes, 49 airstrikes and 48 MLRS strikes; Ukraine undertook 15 airstrikes, according to the General Staff.

Russia shelled some 65 Ukrainian populations settlements, according to the General Staff.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

According to Ukrainian milbloggers, Ukrainian forces are pressing their advantage in some parts of Bakhmut.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said: “In the Bakhmut direction, we are gradually moving forward. On the southern flank around Bakhmut, there is a daily advance. On the northern flank, we are trying to hold the occupied positions, the enemy is attacking.”

Operational Aspects in Crimea, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Russia and other areas

Explosions were heard and traffic on the Kerch bridge to Crimea was stopped due to an “emergency,” said the head of the Crimean occupational regime, Sergey Aksyonov.

Ukraine undertook an attack on Sevastopol, a key military port, in occupied Crimea last night using airborne and naval drones.

The number of Russian warships in the Black Sea has increased to 11, including two missile ships with a total volley of 12 Kalibr-type cruise missiles, according to a spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Yesterday, one person was killed, and one injured due to Russian shelling of the village of Kolodyazne in Kharkiv region and, overnight, Russian forces launched four S-300 missiles at Kharkiv city, the Regional Military Administration reported.

Russia struck the city three times yesterday.

In Luhansk region, pro-Russian sources said Russian forces “managed to advance in the Serebryanka forest from Shypylivka.”

Malyar said that “the enemy has been actively advancing in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv region for two days in a row. We are on the defensive. There are fierce battles; the positions of the parties change dynamically several times a day.”

In the central Donetsk region, pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces “managed to take a number of positions southwest of Pavlivka [near Maryinka].”

Ukrainian forces continue to undertake “shaping operations” and hitting Russian targets with long-range weaponry, including the below warehouse in occupied Novooleksiivka, Kherson region.

Air defense systems were active over Belgorod in Russia, according to various sources. Artillery exchanges continued to occur in its western sections and Russian civilians have apparently left the five-kilometer border zone.

Fire broke out at a hospital for veterans under construction in Bryansk, Russia for the second time in a month, according to Russian state-owned media.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have entered Staromaiorske along the Mokri Yaly River axis. The General Staff confirmed Ukrainian forces are in the northern part of Staromaiorske. Pro-Russian milbloggers confirmed that “units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to break through the defenses in the north of Staromaiorske.”

If confirmed, the taking of Staromaiorske would represent Ukraine’s most southward position/liberated settlement on this axis since the beginning of the summer offensive.

“In the Berdyansk direction, Ukrainian forces have advanced more than one kilometer in one of the sections,” said Valerii Shershen, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern forces, but did not identify the location.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked from the side of Kamianske just to the east of the M-18 highway and managed to take a number of important positions,” stated a pro-Russian source. This village is in the western Zaporizhzhia region and within the Berdyansk direction.

“Ukrainian units advanced in the forest belt along the railway line just west of Dorozhnyanka [to the east of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia],” according to the same source.

Infographic of the Day