Russia’s Month of Missile Madness: 90% of Projectiles Failed, $1.7 Billion Spent

Russia fired more than 500 missiles and kamikaze drones at Ukraine during May with nearly 90 percent of them being destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses, a Kyiv Post analysis of Ukrainian military data has revealed, at a cost to the Russians of more than $1.7 billion dollars.

After conducting a day-by-day analysis of information released by Ukraine’s Air Force, Kyiv Post identified that at least 563 missiles of various categories and Iranian-made Shahed drones were fired against Ukrainian settlements and territories from the beginning to the end of May.

Of those, 533 were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense systems which is a neutralization rate of over 90 percent for the month – during which there were some 20 combined Russian aerial attacks with most including Kyiv.

The attacks on Ukraine included 401 Shahed-136 UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) which Russia weaponizes as Geran-2’s for one-way missions. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 362 of the incoming drones or, again, over 90 percent of them.

Each Shahed costs around $20,000 so the minimum cost to Russia of their deployment would have been around $8 million in May alone. Russia may have purchased some 2400 overall Shaheds from Iran, according to the Ukrainian government, but some estimates are lower.

Also used in the attacks, which are conducted from bombers, airfield launch facilities, and ships, were:

·      Kh101-555 missiles - 114 deployed; 106 destroyed; a 93 percent neutralization rate; potential cost; $1.48 billion. 

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·      Kaliber missiles – 29 deployed; 29 destroyed; 100 percent; $155 million.

·      Kinzhal missiles – 7 deployed; 7 destroyed; 100 percent; $28 million.

·      Iskander missiles including from Su-400 systems – 16 deployed; 16 destroyed; 100 percent; $48 million.

·      Kh-22 missiles – 5 deployed; 5 destroyed; 100 percent; $5 million.

·      Missiles from Su-300 systems – 12 deployed; 5 destroyed; 40 percent; $5 million.

·      Other unnmamed missiles – 7 deployed; 7 destroyed; 100 percent; unknown cost.

To scale the cost of Russian attacks - over $1.7 billion in one month - the Kyiv School of Economics has recently estimated that the total reconstructuon cost for Ukraine's health sector is around $1.7 billion.

READ MORE: Why Is Moscow Persisting With Unsuccessful Missile Attacks – Strategy or Insanity?

May 27/28 was the date with the single most attacking Shaheds when 54 were deployed and 96.3 percent were destroyed. 

May 28/29 could be called the most intense day of Russian attacks with a combination of 86 missiles and drones deployed against Ukraine; 89.5 percent of incoming were destroyed.

Kyiv Post notes that, while there are some inconsistencies in how air defense data was disclosed that may have impacted on exact figures given in our analysis; we have made conservative assumptions where it was necessary. The data is that which is made public by the Ukrainian armed forces and was not subject to independent verification. Even so – the trend and the levels of failure by Russia is self-evident.