The world underestimated Russia and its imperial plans. Because of this, almost all Western leaders did not take seriously enough the actions of the Putin regime in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, when the Russian authorities occupied these territories.
This was a key take-out from this week’s conference "War in Ukraine: development, trends, consequences", an event that was organized and streamed by Ukrinform.
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"After Georgia and Aleppo (Syria), there was no need to be surprised by the actions of the Russian regime. If they could do this, then one should have expected something similar in Ukraine," said Steven Getins, a senior lecturer at the School of International Relations. He took part in the discussion
His colleague, a professor of the practice of international relations, Marc De Vore, said that until the last moment international experts did not believe there would be a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"I think collectively in the West we underestimated two things: how revisionist the Russian government is - so much so that it was willing to use force to restore something resembling an empire - and how irrational they are," he said.
In addition, the West thought that it was very difficult for one large country to try to attack and capture another country.
"Given that, and given the economic cost of sanctions that Russia would pay if it invaded Ukraine, we said it would be irrational for Russia to invade, they wouldn't do it. We overestimated their rationality or we underestimated their irrationality," De Vore believes.
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That is why some countries were not aware of the danger posed by the Russian Federation for years. For example, Britain did not fight against "dirty" Russian money entering the financial market, Getins says.
Despite this, there is still no awareness of Russia's future and whom to negotiate with regarding the security order in Europe. In order for this dialogue to begin, Russia needs to be led by a government that will fundamentally accept the national borders and sovereignty of the countries that emerged after the collapse of the USSR, De Vore said.
Likewise, negotiations with Ukraine are possible only when Ukraine controls its entire territory, and the Russian Federation stays within its borders, Getins added.
He also believes that today Ukraine is at the epicenter of conversations about the future of Europe. "Your future is our future," the expert was certain about that.
His colleague De Vore thinks that "Ukraine proves every day how useful an ally it can be, and is a desirable ally for NATO member countries."
Therefore, in his view, Ukraine's membership of the EU and NATO will only enrich Europe.
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