Ukrainian Security Chief’s View: Russia Will Collapse Within 3-7 years

Having failed to predict and prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West must now get ready for the break-up of Russia, Olexiy Danilov, Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council Chief, has said, speaking in an interview with The Times newspaper.

He added that, recently, Russia has profoundly weakened and risks falling apart. According to Danilov, this became evident after Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"The West does not know Russia and fears Russia's fragmentation. But this process is already underway," Danilov stressed, adding that the collapse of Russia will be "spectacular" and will happen within the next three, five or seven years.

"This is a historical process, and history cannot be stopped," Ukraine's national security adviser said.

The likelihood of Russia's collapse after the defeat in the war against Ukraine, has been widely discussed by politicians and analysts since the full-scale invasion began.

According to a survey conducted by the Atlantic Council, many foreign policy experts agree with Danilov’s assessment, saying that Russia may not survive the coming decade and risks becoming a failed state as it pursues its costly war in Ukraine.

Of 167 experts interviewed by the Atlantic Council, 46% said that the collapse or disintegration of Russia could happen in the next ten years.

Separately, 40% of respondents pointed to Russia as a state that will disintegrate internally for a number of reasons, particularly because of "revolution, civil war or political disintegration."

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"Ukraine clearly emphasizes the possibility of internal problems for Russia and the likelihood that the war itself may have boomerang consequences not only for its leadership but also for the country as a whole," said Peter Engelke, deputy director of forecasting at the Atlantic Council.

At the same time, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, believes that Russia will not collapse completely, but we will see the launch of a process of separation from Moscow by some "ethnic territories", which have a distinctive history.