OPINION: Forget Peace, Putin Wants to Conquer Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a 30-day energy and infrastructure ceasefire and an exchange of 175 prisoners, but also set a condition of a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Ukraine. Putin has stressed that any resolution to the conflict must be “comprehensive, sustainable and long term” and must include an end to Ukraine’s efforts to integrate more tightly into the democratic-led West.

His incomplete response to US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal, agreed to by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is likely to include additional demands which could make any meaningful progress unlikely. Ukrainian leaders will be hoping Putin’s unwillingness to accept the US-led ceasefire initiative will help convince their American partners that the Russian dictator is not truly interested in ending the war.

A majority of Ukrainians have been upset by recent US claims that Russia is prepared for serious peace talks, and have referenced Moscow’s consistently hardline negotiation stance as proof that Putin wants to continue the war. They argue that the current discussion over potential compromises and territorial concessions shows a basically distorted understanding of the extremist motives behind Putin’s invasion.

Ukrainians believe they have a far more pragmatic view of the Kremlin’s true objectives. They are convinced that Putin will never be content with some territorial gains because that is not his ultimate goal. He does not seek land in Ukraine, but is waging a war against the very existence of a separate sovereign Ukrainian nation. This horrifying objective sabotages the complete concept of a peaceful compromise. In other words, there exists no relevant middle ground between Russian genocide and Ukrainian national survival.

Both the previous and current White House residents have misjudged the degree of Putin’s imperialistic aspirations in Ukraine. The Biden administration often assessed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “strategic failure,” specifying the extremely high cost the Kremlin paid in terms of economic damage and military casualties. Such a practical evaluation of the invasion assumed that Putin is steered and controlled by Western logic, when in reality this is not the case.

Whereas democratic leaders concern themselves with economic fallout and approval ratings, Putin faces no opposition domestically and proceeds to focus on securing his rightful place in Russian history. He has never hidden his belief that the collapse of the USSR was a monumental tragedy and the resulting post-Cold War world order a huge injustice. In his mind Ukraine personifies both of these hardships, thus Putin believes he cannot achieve his historic mission of reversing the decision of 1991 to resurrect the Russian Empire without first eliminating an independent Ukraine.

The past two decades have vividly shown Putin’s obsession with Ukraine. His attempts to conquer his neighbor have evolved from political interference to military conflict. In 2004 his failure to fix Ukraine’s presidential election and install a Moscow-friendly candidate resulted in the Orange Revolution. In 2014, his response to another Ukrainian pro-democratic uprising was to annex Crimea and invade eastern Ukraine.

In time, the limited aggression of 2014 proved not to be enough of a desired outcome to create a pro-Russia Ukraine. Essentially, it had the opposite effect, strengthening Ukraine’s commitment to the West and the pursuit of a Euro-Atlantic future. Instead of admitting the failure of his limited military campaign of 2014, Putin opted to go all in by launching the biggest European invasion since World War II.

Since February 2022, Putin has not hidden his intention of eliminating Ukraine from the face of the earth. He has declared occupied Ukrainian territories to be forever Russian, and has compared his invasion of Ukraine to the 18th century imperial conquests of Russia’s Peter the Great. Violent anti-Ukrainian verbiage has become so normal in Russian state media that United Nations officials say it may constitute “incitement to genocide.” In the interim, Russia is systematically vanquishing all hints of Ukrainian statehood and national identity throughout areas of Ukraine under Moscow’s control.

In spite of the terror and trauma from the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian people have not backed down. To Putin, this is a personal humiliation, an erosion of his cautiously manufactured strongman character. It also mocks his insistence that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” Instead of achieving prominence as one of the greatest rulers in Russian history, Putin could now be remembered as the one who lost Ukraine.

Losing Ukraine is possibly Putin’s worst nightmare. Since seeing the crumbling of the Soviet empire while serving as a young KGB officer in East Germany, he has been cursed by visions of populist movements toppling empires. This explains his vehement opposition to the vibrant democratic culture that has grown in post-Soviet Ukraine. Since the 2004 Orange Revolution, Putin has seen the consolidation of Ukrainian democracy as an empirical threat to his authoritarian regime and a potential impetus for the next phase in Russia’s withdrawal from empire status.

Putin realizes that his invasion of Ukraine will ultimately define his entire reign and probably decide the Russian Federation’s future. While he may decide to discuss a strategic pause in the warfare if he is granted favorable terms, he will never accept the existence of a separate sovereign Ukrainian nation bordering Russia. Current US-led peace negotiations are by no means pointless, although any freezing of the conflict along the current front lines will never end the war.

For several decades, Western allies have mistakenly viewed Vladimir Putin in the context of their own political realism, not grasping the importance of his revisionist imperial ideology. Now in the fourth year of a war in the heart of Europe, this wishful thinking has to stop. Putin is betting everything on destroying Ukraine and believes he will be favorably judged by the court of history. If he is not stopped by the overwhelming strength of the collective West, he will continue to wage war against Ukraine until he achieves his horrifying goal.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.