Each January, the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, attracts a flurry of international media attention, but this year, the event’s main talking point was US President Donald Trump. Strangely, the media savvy WEF opened the very day Trump was inaugurated. The biggest question on everyone’s lips in Davos was what Trump plans to do about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
This was the 11th year I attended the WEF. For many years, the WEF has rather hypocritically embraced liberal good causes that few business leaders actually believed in. In recent years, green energy and the combat of corruption have been favorite themes, but no longer. Only a few protesters dared to advocate green energy in the new Trump world. Instead, the Promenade in Davos was dominated by AI, with dubious slogans such as “Make AI work for you!” Many of the AI companies were obscure, reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
None of the chief executives of US “Magnificent Seven” (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla), attended Davos this year, although five of them went to Trump’s inauguration. Needless to say, none of Trump’s top nominees dared to even leave Washington at such a critical time. The most prominent US business executive in Davos was JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon.
Contrary to Trump’s many lies about US decline, the US economy flourished as never before under President Joe Biden. US business has never been more dominant, with 18 of the 20 most valuable companies in the world are American. The US accounts for an astounding 73 percent of all global stock markets and has forged ahead with a high growth rate of over 2 percent annually since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US top universities rule the world, and the country has minimal unemployment at 4.1 percent. Last year, the US produced more oil than any country in history at 13.4 million barrels a day.
New Front? Reports Claim China is Secretly Backing Russia with Troops
The best Trump could do is nothing – just claim to be the source of the success that Biden bred. Unfortunately, Trump has already shown that he will be an extreme activist with minimal or no respect for facts or the rule of law. His three top policies are tariffs (to reduce global trade and raise domestic prices), deportation of immigrants (to boost prices of food, hospitality and construction services), and tax cuts for billionaires (to make them even wealthier, boost inflation and aggravate the public debt).
None of these policies will benefit the vast majority of Americans. Among economists, the consensus view is that inflation will worsen and that the Federal Reserve will be compelled to maintain high interest rates. At least initially, even more foreign capital will flow into the US, which will drive up the dollar exchange rate and stock prices, while the US trade deficit is set to increase. Trump stands for a characteristic boom-and-bust policy.
Yet, many international businesspeople in Davos expressed their appreciation of Trump, not only because he wants to deregulate and cut their taxes, but also because he seems to make things happen. Biden said the right things but implemented too little. Europe is even worse. People want action.
Wake-up call for Europe
One of the most exacting comments on Europe came from President Volodymyr Zelensky: “Right now, all eyes are on Washington. But who is actually watching Europe at the moment?” He continued: “Will President Trump even notice Europe? Does he see NATO as necessary? And will he respect EU institutions?”
He drew sound conclusions: “Europe deserves to be strong. And for this, Europe needs the EU and NATO… Only real security guarantees for us will serve as real security guarantees for everyone in Europe. And we must ensure that America also sees us as essential… Europe needs to know how to defend itself.” Zelensky delivered the strongest pro-European speech I heard in Davos.
Europe and Ukraine need one another. Ukraine needs European financial support, but Europe is a militarily insignificant weakling without Ukraine. Presidential advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin told me that Ukrainian industry can deliver arms, mainly drones, for $30 billion this year, but it only has orders for $10 billion. If Europe would provide $20 billion for arms procurement in Ukraine, both Ukraine’s economy and its military position would greatly improve.
One big business deal involving Ukraine was announced in Davos by DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko. DTEK bought wind turbines from Danish Vestas for $400 million with substantial Danish government financing, continuing Ukraine’s strong development of renewable energy. This has been accelerated by Russia’s bombing of the old Soviet power stations, because it is much more difficult to bomb renewable energy generators.
For the 20th year, Ukrainian businessman Victor Pinchuk and his foundation played a big role in Davos with a Ukraine dinner, a Ukraine breakfast and support of the Ukraine House, where I spent a lot of time. The Ukraine House was constantly crowded and had many outstanding events. When President Zelensky was there, Argentinian President Javier Milei came by.
The biggest question was of course: What will Trump do about the war between Russia and Ukraine?
Ukraine House had invited several prominent republican foreign policy experts. Ambassador Kurt Volker has long argued that Trump is likely to call Russian President Vladimir Putin and ask him for ceasefire, which Putin will refuse. Trump will inevitably then be angered and threaten with serious escalation, as he has now done publicly with “tariffs, taxes and sanctions.”
So far, Trump’s foreign policy appointments in the National Security Council and the State Department appear more benevolent to Ukraine than one could have anticipated, though the Pentagon staff looks scary.
Ukraine House had one session with Bill Browder and Yuliya Ziskina on the need to seize the $300 billion of Russian sovereign assets in the West and transfer them to Ukraine as war reparations, but this key topic attracted less attention than last year.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
