President Donald Trump, who just has returned to the White House, shocked the world with his recent comments about Canada, the Panama Canal, and Greenland.
Ian Bremmer, President of the political consultancy Eurasia Group, wrote in his blog that the current perception among the Canadian Conservative Party (likely to be victorious in the next elections) changed from “funny/stupid” to “officially no longer funny.”
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Trump’s refusal to rule out the possibility of military or economic action against Denmark to obtain Greenland sparked questions from the leaders of European countries, with Chancellor Scholz stating that every state must respect the principle of border inviolability. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot argued that given the current developments in the world, we have entered “an era of the law of the strongest.”
The government of Panama was similarly dissatisfied with Trump’s idea of bringing the Canal back under US control. According to Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha’s statement “the only hands operating the canal are Panamanian and that is how it is going to stay.”
While one may argue that Trump is going after these goals merely to look strong in the eyes of his supporters, who adhere to the idea of Making America Great Again. The actual reason may be found in the similarities between Canada, Greenland, and Panama. While Panama has been crucial for international trade for more than 100 years, Canada and Greenland may become as much if not even more important.
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Currently, around 40% of all US container shipments go through the Panama Canal, which means that it is vital for the US to maintain access to this shipment line. The recent comments may have been caused by the perception of threat coming from China. In 2021, a Hong Kong-based company extended lease of ports of Balboa and Colón for 25 years.
Also, China is heavily invested in construction of new infrastructure around the Panama Canal. As fairly noted by Alexander Gray, a former member of Trump Administration, China is known for the usage of infrastructure to achieve economic and political control over states.
As for Canada and Greenland, current trends of global warming indicate that as early 2030s Arctic may become ice-free during summers, meaning that even though not year-round, shipping routes will be available for international trade. Canada is of particular interest since the Northwest Passage Route (NPR) would go directly through its waters.
NPR would transform global maritime routes as it would significantly decrease time required for shipping, it would reduce the length of the path from US East Coast to Asia by around 30%, depending on the destination. In the case of Europe, it would reduce distance considerably as well.
One of the issues Canada and the US has been that while Canada considers such a path as part of its internal water. However, the US says such a route is an international strait. If it is considered the latter, the US and other nations wouldn’t need to pay fees for sailing, and military ships would be allowed to navigate through Canadian waters.
Trump’s idea to pursue Greenland may stem from both shipping and security considerations. While not going through Greenland’s (Danish) territorial waters the Transpolar Sea Route runs extremely close to it. Though this path may be decades away it could become another important maritime route in trade between Asia and Europe.
Security issues stem from the fact that Greenland may be used as a US military facility in the center of the Arctic. Since 2008, Russia has been actively modernizing its military and undertaking provocations in the region (e.g., electronic warfare usage and aerial missions directed against NATO nations). Moreover, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and actively cooperates with Russia on development of the Northeast Passage, which runs through Russian territorial waters. China is also conducting flights close to Alaska and Northern Europe.
Overall, while Trump’s statements may sound quite irrational and promote American expansionism, they may be much more well thought out. The recently inaugurated president is known for his undiplomatic and harsh rhetoric, but also for undertaking bold actions that promote US interests as in the case of his energy diplomacy, targeted killing of General Qasem Soleimani and provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine.
What US allies need to do is prepare for tough negotiations with the Trump Administration. It should not come as a surprise if what Trump is trying to do is guarantee US access to key maritime pathways of today and tomorrow. The US may push Panama to limit its infrastructure agreements with China, Canada to sign an agreement with the US that would give its ships special rights and Denmark to allow the US to build broad military infrastructure in Greenland.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily those of the Kyiv Post.
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