On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia began its war against the US, Europe, and much of the democratic world. Very few had taken notice of that war’s scope even though its intent was (prematurely) published and then retracted two days earlier in RIA Novosti, a state-owned news agency. Petr Akopov, the article’s author (“Russia’s Attack and the New World”), is a well-connected propagandist with sources inside the Russian National Security Council. He made it clear that the invasion of Ukraine was merely the “first dimension” against a “world order” allegedly dominated by the US and UK.
The author concluded that this “new era” would require a militarily imposed “unification” of the “totality of Great Russians, Belarusians, and ‘Little Russians’ (i.e., Ukrainians) into a ‘Russian world’” before the start of its “second dimension,” which requires a division of Europe and displacement of America’s role in it.
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The “third dimension” would be the construction of a “new world order” by largely authoritarian “power centers” with decidedly different terms and rules than that of the West.
Simultaneously, Russia’s “main problem” – its “centuries-old” Ukrainian problem – would be solved simply by partition and genocidal elimination of Ukraine as a nation and state.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2025
Putin had laid out his strategy and targets in straightforward terms: Europe and the US, with Ukraine as a prerequisite. Since he took office, making Russia “great” again has been his obsession. Both Putin and Trump share the same “making (their countries) great again” ambitions, but only one can win. If Russia wins, the US will be the loser because Putin will have recovered his losses and remain better prepared to proceed against Europe and the US.
Ukraine is the deciding factor. Putin and his top officials have been remarkably candid in reaffirming their strategy and goals numerous times since February 2022.
Now comes the saddest part of this article because it may seem cruel and heartless, but there is no avoiding it. Ukrainians must endure the brown-outs, black-outs, sirens, explosions, and privations of this winter as best they can, but return with a vengeance in the spring: dropping troops behind enemy lines, targeting enemy troop and logistic movements, destroying the Kerch bridge, hitting as many Russian military-industrial facilities, fuel depots, ports, and infrastructure as their missiles and drones can reach; possibly even opening up a new front in Russia’s interreligious and ethnically volatile Kuban region.
Trump always favors “the winner” and will want to be on the winning side. Ukraine will have three warm seasons in 2025 to confound, demoralize, and throw Putin’s armies into retreat.
Ukrainians must stay the course because they have no other options. Unless Russia withdraws, Ukraine’s heretofore harrowing human and material losses will have empowered Russia by providing a platform for its subsequent invasion.
In short, a cease-fire that allows and even legitimizes continued Russian occupation of prior and newly occupied territories is a victory for Russia and a defeat for the 50-member “democratic coalition” including the US. No word-smithing, Minsk diplomacy or “peacekeeping” will change the outcome if Ukraine agrees to Russia’s “territorial realities.” Only in defeat will Russia give up the territory it seizes and occupies. Germans need to look no further than Königsberg and the Japanese at the Kuril Islands to understand Russia’s meaning.
Those Ukrainians who think that a “cease-fire in place” will, at least, provide some normality in their lives must know that – in Putin’s “new era” of absorption into the “Russky mir” – only those Ukrainians who prove their loyalty to Moscow will be spared. The rest will be treated like traitors and “spoils” of war…. militarized (like prisoners) to serve as cannon fodder against the rest of Ukraine and Europe or displaced to Siberia.
Former US Secretary of State Madame Albright described Putin as completely cold and “reptilian” in her meeting with him. This “reptile” has already demonstrated his demonic brutality. Who will then defend the 3-4 million Ukrainians left behind?
It is premature for Ukrainian authorities to consider the surrender of its territory as its only option. Russia may be more vulnerable than Ukraine. It has already destroyed most of Ukraine’s most valuable military and economic facilities, while Ukraine has only started. How will Putin explain his three-day “special military operation” becoming a humiliating four-year war with nightly sirens, fires, and explosions spreading throughout European Russia?
His economy is fragile, and his “rainy day” reserves will likely be depleted this year. Social service funding has dried up. Russia’s ruble has lost 40% of its external value. Its biggest microchip factory has declared bankruptcy. Inflation is rising, while many imported goods are unavailable and unaffordable. Businesses are returning to a barter economy. And its military casualties are already eight times that of its nine-year war in Afghanistan, with little to show for it except global isolation and 180,000 of its citizens listed as war criminals. It is little wonder that Russian public opinion is turning against the war.
What does all this mean regarding US support and President Trump? Trump cannot negotiate away Ukrainian territory because it is not his to give. He has already extended his cease-fire timeline by 100 days, and then there will be another hundred into autumn.
In the meantime, Ukraine can use the remainder of its $60 billion Congressional appropriation, continued receipt of military support from Europe and the 50 democratic coalition nations, the prodigious production of its defense industry, frozen Russian assets, loans, and donations, as well as expanding domestic economic output to acquire most of whatever else is needed. Every passing day will find Russia increasingly less capable of defeating Ukraine.
Trump always favors “the winner” and will want to be on the winning side. Ukraine will have three warm seasons in 2025 to confound, demoralize, and throw Putin’s armies into retreat. If it does, Trump will become Ukraine’s strongest supporter and facilitate its NATO entry. Will Trump make America “great again” by helping end Russian fascism?
As a businessman and dealmaker, Trump should realize that supporting Ukraine is the “deal” of the century.
Thankfully, Europe has now taken the lead in supporting Ukraine militarily. This is as it should be; the US can focus on other trouble spots. Ukraine may still need American reconnaissance support, air defense systems, certain precision projectiles, and highly advanced equipment and technical support. Otherwise, European assistance and Ukraine’s resourcefulness, design, and production may suffice.
As a businessman and dealmaker, Trump should realize that supporting Ukraine is the “deal” of the century. The $112 billion that Congress allocated to the Defense Department to aid Ukraine will have saved over $800 billion of additional US defense spending to counter a victorious Russia.
The most crucial goal that President Zelensky should set for himself is the reform of his armed forces: promotion of combat-experienced and successful officers to top ranks; ensuring adequate training and equipment for recruits; cutting red tape for soldiers and veterans; ensuring that required troop rotation, unit and specialty choices, and terms of service are met; upgrading medical support and veteran benefits. The estimated 100,000 newly recruited and mobilized personnel now in the “pipeline” and undergoing training can do much to relieve near-term pressure on front-line forces while additional mobilized conscripts are readied for Ukraine’s fateful 2025 counteroffensive.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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