2024 was another very difficult year for Ukraine. Although it managed to hold its ground in the bloody fight against the Russian aggressor with the support of its Western backers, it had reason to feel disappointed and was ultimately left hanging in the uncertainty of what 2025 would bring.
Although the Ukrainians continued to resist heroically and even managed to take the fight to Russia itself, the reluctance of their de facto allies to allow them to strike deeper into Russia and also provide them with the security guarantees they wanted was disappointing.
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It undermined their efforts to prevail against a predatory enemy that has proven time and again that it does not value human life and international legal norms and opposes everything the democratic world stands for, as well as Kyiv’s efforts to achieve a just peace.
2025 will be fraught with great uncertainty and anxiety, as it remains unclear how the new Trump administration will behave, what will happen in Europe and whether Ukraine will be pressured by its partners to give in.
Domestically, the next year is likely to prove even more difficult as Ukraine not only continues its fight against the Russian enemy but also tries to preserve its freedom and territory in a world where the principle of a rules-based international system seems to have been eroded.
For many Ukrainian refugees who have sought refuge abroad, it will be a time of weighing up: return (to what?), or try to start a new life elsewhere.
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The fear of nuclear war stoked by Moscow, the internal economic and political challenges and the costs of standing by Ukraine are likely to lead to greater “Ukraine fatigue” and a stronger desire to come to terms with Russia, albeit at Ukraine’s expense.
Speculation about a possible “peace” deal brokered or imposed by external parties will generate nervousness, uncertainty at home, and possibly internal divisions.
Ultimately, then, the resilience, unity and quality of Ukraine’s leadership will be put to an even tougher test, as will the wisdom, political resolve and forbearance of the country’s friends and allies.
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