OPINION: Why Isn’t Moscow Celebrating Trump’s Re-election?

Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory caused the Russian establishment to erupt in cheers as Russian parliamentarians raised toasts of celebration. This time around the Kremlin’s response was indifferent, if not hostile: Is Moscow rethinking Trump?

Vladimir Putin, a couple days after Trump sealed his return to the White House, confessed in passing at a press conference that while he congratulated the new president-elect that “I don’t know what will happen now. I have no idea.”

This lukewarm reception is just the beginning of Moscow’s broader, more calculated approach to Trump’s second term. If the Russian leader’s remarks were tepid, the state media’s actions were downright hostile. Russian state TV aired nude photographs of Melania Trump, a stunt that surely would have received Putin’s tacit approval.

Meanwhile, Russian officials mocked Trump’s post-election statements, particularly his claimed conversation with Putin about “escalations” in Ukraine – a call that Russia immediately denied ever took place.

But the Kremlin’s dismissiveness did not end with media jabs. The Russian government wasted little time undermining Trump’s foreign policy ambitions. Trump had floated the idea of brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine before his inauguration. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, rejected the notion with derision, insisting that such an agreement “cannot be done overnight.” Peskov further clarified that a resolution would not be possible until after Trump takes office in January – effectively dismissing the proposal as unrealistic and premature.

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More damaging was a scathing article published by Nikolai Patrushev, one of Putin’s closest aides and a key figure in the Russian security apparatus. Patrushev suggested that Trump’s victory was not the result of his own efforts but was instead orchestrated by “specific groups” that now had leverage over him. This narrative of Trump as a pawn in a geopolitical game is designed to discredit him and undermine his standing in international politics.

So why this sudden shift in tone? One possibility is that the Kremlin has recognized that Trump’s foreign policy will not necessarily align with their interests as it once did. There may be external factors influencing this change, particularly Trump’s growing alignment with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on matters of security, especially the Iranian threat. Netanyahu and Trump have often found common ground on confronting Iran, a nation that is not only a Russian ally but also a key player in the Middle East’s web of terror networks.

Moreover, Russia’s deepening ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas – groups that Russia has long supported – have likely raised alarms in Washington. Notably, Hamas’ leadership visited Moscow shortly after the Oct. 7 attacks, signaling that the Kremlin’s relationship with these militant groups is growing ever closer. Trump’s personal animosity toward Iran, fueled by the recent revelation of an Iranian assassination plot against him, could also play a role in shaping his approach to Moscow and Tehran in his second term.

Although Trump has yet to articulate a clear strategy regarding Russia or Iran in his next term, there are signs that Moscow, along with Tehran, may have underestimated the possibility of a hardline, America-first approach from Trump – one that could decisively challenge both regimes. If Trump follows through on his commitment to a strong, independent foreign policy, the world’s leading state sponsors of terrorism might find themselves facing a leader determined to bring them to their knees, not with diplomatic niceties but with the kind of decisive action that has long been absent in US foreign policy.

The Kremlin may not be toasting Trump’s re-election this time, but one thing is certain: Moscow will be watching closely as this new chapter in US leadership unfolds.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.