OPINION: Why Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Will Fail

Today millions of Americans will gather at the polls to vote for the next US president. Nearly 80 million Americans have already cast their ballots, and many more will vote on election day.

As Americans gather at the polls, many policy issues will be on their mind. They will vote for the presidential candidates based on their stances on topics such as the economy, abortion rights, education policy, US border security, and immigration.

But for Ukrainian Americans, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine will be another high-priority item when they enter the voting booth. What role will this community play in the US presidential election?

According to the United States Census Bureau, “more than one million Americans report Ukrainian ancestry.” Many Ukrainian Americans live and vote in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Former President Donald Trump narrowly won these three states in the 2016 presidential election, while President Joe Biden won them by a close margin in 2020.

These three states will once again be important in 2024, and the Ukrainian American vote will play an essential role in determining which presidential candidate will win this election cycle.

Many members of the Ukrainian American community are still torn over who they will support. Where do the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates stand on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and what have they said about US-Ukraine relations?

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The candidates’ differing attitudes to Ukraine

During the campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris has said that if she is elected, the United States will continue to assist Ukraine to ensure that it “prevails in [the] war” against Russia. Similarly, during the presidential debate in September, she stated that she would continue to strengthen relationships with America’s allies and partners so that they can help “preserve the ability of [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and the Ukrainians to fight for their independence.”

Then during a meeting with Zelensky, Harris announced $1.5 billion in assistance to Ukraine. The new aid package included weapons, defense equipment, and humanitarian aid. She has vowed to continue providing additional forms of this assistance to Ukraine if elected.

Meanwhile, Trump has taken a different approach. During the presidential debate, the former president was asked if it was “in America’s interest for Ukraine to win the war” against Russia. He did not answer the question. Instead, the former president emphasized the need to end the war.

Throughout the campaign, he repeated that he will “end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day” if he is elected to office. He has argued that the United States is providing too much aid to Ukraine, and he has proposed to cut US support if he is elected. He has blamed President Zelensky for the Russian invasion, and he has said that Ukraine should be forced into a compromise with Russia.

The chances of Trump’s peace plan succeeding

There are several reasons why Trump’s forced path to peace in Ukraine will fail.

Firstly, it ignores Ukrainian voices. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 73 percent of Ukrainians believe that “Ukraine will eventually liberate all of its territories” from Russian occupation.

Similarly, in a poll published by The Conversation, 90 percent of surveyed Ukrainians stated that Russia should not be allowed to control the territory it occupies in southern and eastern Ukraine.

These surveys suggest that while the Ukrainians understand the hardships and horrors that have occurred during Russia’s war, they are still willing to do whatever it takes to defeat Russian aggression. Trump’s peace proposals ignore the desires and goals of the Ukrainian people. (When asked about former President Trump’s proposed peace plan for this article, members of the Ukrainian government, under anonymity, said that they would not accept forced negotiations with the Russian Federation, nor would they agree to terms that were unfavorable to Ukraine.)

Secondly, a forced peace plan would not bring peace to Ukraine. Instead, it would condemn millions of Ukrainians to Russian occupation. International organizations such as the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International have reported thousands of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Their reports found that Russian soldiers have raped men, women, and children. They have also tortured, mutilated and executed hundreds of Ukrainian civilians in the occupied regions. This brutality would only continue if millions of Ukrainians were forced to live in these conditions. In other words, a ceasefire will not bring a peaceful solution to southern and eastern Ukraine. Instead, it will lead to greater violence and conflict in the occupied regions.

Finally, if Trump forces Ukraine into a peace process with Russia, the plan would assume that the Russian Federation would uphold the terms of the agreement. History, however, has shown that Russia has a habit of breaking international agreements.

For example, Russia signed a ceasefire with Georgia in 2008 after the Russo-Georgian war. The peace agreement called for the Russians to withdraw from the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Instead, Russia maintained its presence in both Georgian provinces. To this day, Russian forces remain in those two regions, a direct violation of the ceasefire signed in 2008.

The Russians also violated several agreed ceasefires during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. From April 2014 to February 2022, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) established the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 Agreements. The process sought to “provide a peaceful resolution” to the Donbas conflict, where the agreements called on Russia to demilitarize the Donbas and withdraw its forces.

Instead, Russia maintained its presence in the region for eight years before launching the full-scale invasion in 2022. These examples suggest that Russia would not be interested in upholding a new ceasefire in Ukraine. Instead, the Russians would likely maintain their presence in the Russian-occupied regions in southern and eastern Ukraine, giving them time to regroup and re-strategize before launching a third military incursion into Ukraine.

In short, forced negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will not end the Russian invasion. Recent polling data suggests that most Ukrainian citizens are committed to Ukraine’s defense efforts, and they believe that they can still win the war. They are also committed to the full liberation of Ukrainian territories. Finally, most Ukrainians believe that the only way to end the war is by defeating the Russians.

This means that for Ukraine to be victorious, it will need the weapons and support it needs from its allies and partners. Only then can Ukraine defeat Russia.

Based on the US presidential campaign trail, one candidate has promised to provide additional defense assistance to Ukraine so that it can end the war. Meanwhile, the other has called for an end to future Ukraine aid. The Ukrainian American community should remember the policy platforms of both candidates when they gather at the ballot box on Nov. 5.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.