Once again, Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening NATO with a new red line. This time, Mad Vlad claimed Russia would be “at war” with NATO if Washington and Brussels green light Ukrainian use of American and European deep-strike precision weapons deep inside of the Russian motherland.
That is old news – according to the Kremlin, Russia has been at war with the West since March 2024.
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The timing of Putin’s threat is notable. It followed the Trump-Harris debate Tuesday night on ABC News – and after former President Donald Trump twice could not bring himself to say he wanted Ukraine to outright win the war.
Vice President Kamala Harris, sensing blood, responded by saying dictators like Putin “would eat you [Trump] for lunch.”
Likely so.
That said, what was lost on Harris is that Putin has already eaten the Biden-Harris administration’s lunch when it comes to Ukraine and has been since Russia began its illegal invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
Significantly, both Russian invasions of Ukraine happened during the timeframe when President Joe Biden was former President Barack Obama’s Vice President, in 2014, and during the Biden-Harris administration in 2022.
To the extent Trump is far too chummy with Putin, Biden, Harris, and their combined national security teams, led by Jake Sullivan, have all been too afraid of the Russian President and his nuclear posturing – threats, nuclear exercises, images of aides with nuclear footballs, and threatening space weapons.
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Putin, predictably, is able to play on their ever-present escalation fears which habitually result in the slow-walking and subsequent denial of NATO weapons and munitions capabilities to Ukraine – and, needlessly, the bloody lengthening of the timeline of the war.
To be sure, Harris’ continuing support of Ukraine is encouraging. And yet, she too notably failed to say during the debate that she wants to see Ukraine win. Thus far, her policy position on the war, as noted by Philip Gordon, her national security advisor, is one of defending Ukraine for as long as it takes. And that likely means more hollow condemnations and condolences delivered by the US ambassador in Kyiv.
Putin bluffed – and once again Biden wavered. The White House in response essentially caved to Putin’s latest onslaught against NATO.
Defending is not a winning war strategy. Nor is the Biden-Harris administration’s incessant hand-wringing over weapon systems.
We have witnessed this now ubiquitous paralysis play out in Washington and Brussels since the day Putin announced his “special military operation.” Patriot Missile Systems, HIMARS, M1A1 Abrams and Leopard main battle tanks, F-16s fighter jets, and ATACMS have all been slow-walked onto the battlefields of Ukraine by NATO out of self-imposed fears of Putin’s so-called “red lines.”
Equally damaging are NATO restrictions that have come with each of these weapon systems, to the point where the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) repeatedly find themselves handcuffed on the battlefield – and against an enemy, Russia, who militarily operates at will and without any similar self-defeating constraints.
US delays in deployment of weapon systems and public announcements of restrictions on their use have afforded Russia time to react – and provide sanctuary.
This despite each time a new weapon system or munition is deployed, Putin has not escalated against Washington or Brussels. Rather, he ratchets up drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
Why?
Putin fears NATO escalation more than anything else. To backstop his badly faltering war in Crimea and the Donbas as well as staggering losses of soldiers, weapon systems, air defense assets, and munitions, Putin has denuded Kaliningrad and other adjoining borders to NATO member states of elite troops and capabilities.
Now, many of those troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Entire “elite” in name only formations have been destroyed and reconstituted, only to be destroyed again.
Simply put, Putin cannot win in Ukraine. Nor can he afford to pick a conventional fight with NATO.
As of Friday, 631,420 Russian personnel have been eliminated – and the Kremlin has lost 8,671 tanks, 17,003 armored fighting vehicles, 18,061 artillery systems, 1,185 multiple rocket launch systems, 945 air defense systems, 15,11 UAVs, 369 aircraft, 328 helicopters, 2,591 cruise missiles, 28 warships and naval vessels, 1 submarine, and 24,560 vehicles and fuel transporters.
Simply put, Putin cannot win in Ukraine. Nor can he afford to pick a conventional fight with NATO. Not only has he lost more than three times the equivalent of his original invading army, but he has also lost most of his experienced leadership – officers and NCOs. That talent base will take years to reconstitute, train and replenish before they could possibly take on NATO.
Mass – in terms of infantry and artillery – may achieve limited results in the Donbas, but it would be decimated by NATO forces.
Most significant is that Ukraine has already crossed Putin’s number one red line by invading the Kursk Oblast in Russia. Putin’s response? Nothing to see here.
Other than increased deadly attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets including “supermarkets, hotels, and houses,” it essentially has been crickets. He has chosen, at least for now, to trade sovereign Russian territory to continue his slow-grinding offensives in the Donbas that are achieving marginal gains.
Yet here we are again, and Washington and Brussels are seemingly falling anew at Putin’s bluffing and warmongering threats. Biden, initially, appeared last week poised to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and British Storm Shadows to strike deeper inside of Russia.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken standing in London alongside David Lammy, the new Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, obliquely implied that such authorization would be forthcoming after they reported to their “bosses [Biden and Keir Starmer, the new Prime Minister of the UK].”
Representative Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, then made it sound like it would be a fait accompli. According to Axios reporter Juliegrace Brufke, McCaul said in an interview with her, that “I talked to Blinken two days ago, and he is traveling with his counterpart from the UK to Kyiv to basically tell them that they will allow them [to hit Russia with ATACMS].”
Then the Trump-Harris debate changed everything. Putin saw his opening. Trump, foolishly, was not willing to commit to Ukraine winning. And Harris foreshadowed she would largely stay the course with Biden’s self-defeating incremental risk-averse approach to arming and equipping the AFU.
Escalation paralysis is alive and well at the White House and it is crippling NATO and Ukraine. And Putin knows it.
Putin bluffed – and once again Biden wavered. The White House in response essentially caved to Putin’s latest onslaught against NATO. The unrestricted use of ATACMS was considerably narrowed to approving the UK green lighting the use of Storm Shadows – and ATACMS, yet again, taken off the table for deeper strikes.
Now, even Storm Shadows appear to be coming off the table. Speaking ahead of a forthcoming meeting between Biden and Starmer, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said, “There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia.”
Escalation paralysis is alive and well at the White House and it is crippling NATO and Ukraine. And Putin and his cronies in the Kremlin and Russian Defense Ministry know it.
Equally damaging is that Biden has now left two US allies badly exposed. The UK is now under direct diplomatic fire from Moscow – and in likely retaliation on Friday, Putin expelled six British diplomats from Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was left hanging as well on Friday as he spoke at the Yalta European Strategy conference. Zelensky was making the case for why Ukraine needs unrestricted use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows.
On Telegram, Zelensky reiterated: “Anyone who simply looks at the map and sees where Russia is launching strikes, where it is preparing forces and holding reserves, where its military facilities are located, and what logistics it uses – anyone who sees all of this clearly understands why Ukraine needs long-range capabilities.”
Everyone, seemingly, except the Biden-Harris White House.
It is time for Biden and Harris to decisively call Putin’s bluff and begin eating his lunch.
Putin, of course, has no such qualms about using Chinese, Iranian and North Korean weapons and munitions inside of Ukraine. And certainly, Putin is not arguing that their use means China, Iran and North Korea are at war with Ukraine. What will be the White House response when Iranian made Fath-360 ballistic missiles fall down on Ukrainian cities?
Only Washington and Brussels appear to be buying into Putin’s twisted logic – and falling prey to his nuclear bluffing and threats of war.
The release of precision long-range weapons authorization to enable Ukraine to strike weapon systems in the Russian interior is key to bringing Putin to the negotiation table. US and NATO air defense systems only defeat the individual missile; these weapons defeat the weapons delivery system.
They can also be used to interdict Russian forces before they arrive on the battlefield. According to the UK Defense Ministry, Ukraine is killing and wounding upwards of 1,000 Russian soldiers a day. Pressure needs to be taken off Ukrainian soldiers in the direct fight – the close fight in the trenches – to create maneuver space necessary to drive Russian forces from the country.
NATO and the US must lean into the military instrument of national power in DIME to create leverage. Enable offensive action – threaten Russia directly, make them react, afford zero sanctuary. Economic sanctions and defensive weapons are not working – they need to show Putin the exit door, then push his military through it.
Putin only understands a bloody nose – hit him in the face. The Biden-Harris Administration should leverage the information instrument of national power in DIME as well by accelerating Ukraine’s pathway to full membership in NATO and the European Union.
Likewise, Trump must stop floating peace plans that would be dead on arrival in Kyiv. Sen. JD Vance’s plan chief among them. It would reward Russia with Ukrainian territory – and leave Ukraine on the outside looking in at NATO.
It is time for Biden and Harris to decisively call Putin’s bluff and begin eating his lunch. Ditto Trump and his campaign. Supporting the green lighting of ATACMS and Storm Shadows, as well as the use of other NATO deep-strike precision weapons inside of Russia by Ukraine would send the Kremlin a long-needed blunt message: Washington and Brussels are fully committed to Ukraine decisively winning.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Copyright 2024. Mark C. Toth and Jonathan E. Sweet. All rights reserved.
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