Not only has Vladimir Putin, the putative emperor of Russia, been proven to have no clothes, but as evidenced daily in Kursk, the Russian Army militarily speaking has been caught stark naked as well by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Ukraine’s stunning counteroffensive in Kursk that began on Aug. 6 is proving to personally be a major embarrassment to Putin and his regime – and it is continuing to gain steam capturing Russian territory at a faster rate than what Moscow has been able to achieve in the Donbas after months of bloody fighting and 100,000+ casualties.
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Sometimes, as Col. Joshua Chamberlain did while defending Little Round Top at Gettysburg during the American Civil War, you have to “fix bayonets’” and attack. Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the AFU Commander-in-Chief, has done just that and boldly aimed them at the underside of Putin’s corrupt and decaying Russia.
In doing so, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have proven the Russian Army to be one-dimensional. Putin’s army can lay siege – and it can inch forward bleeding bodies. However, it cannot maneuver.
This sad sack static Russian army is not their father’s Soviet Army. Rather, they are their great-great grandfather’s meatgrinder of an army that fled the battlefields of WWI – and are being commanded by an equally one-dimensional Gen. Valery Gerasimov who is the Chief of the Russian Army General Staff.
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Russian, not infrequently over its history, has been led by troikas. Presently, it is being led by the military of the Three Stooges: Putin, Gerasimov and Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu.
Gerasimov and Shoigu may not survive this fiasco. Literally and figuratively. Putin might not as well – as evidenced by his fear not to mobilize more Russian conscripts after significant Ukrainian territorial gains.
The AFU daring blitz came shortly after Gerasimov had inspected Russian troops in occupied Ukraine, and amid reports that he “dismissed intelligence warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were gathering near the border with Russia’s western Kursk region as much as two weeks before they began the assault.”
Russia is militarily bleeding in Kursk and Zelensky rubbed a little salt in the wound when he told reporters that, “Everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise. And knows how to achieve results.” As the saying goes, “surprises are for birthdays.”
Aug. 6 was not Putin’s birthday. Happy Birthday, nonetheless, from Ukraine. Needless to say, the denuded and exposed Russian emperor was not amused and tried to dismiss it as a “large-scale provocation.”
Many in Washington questioned whether Ukraine could mount another counteroffensive. Syrskyi’s forces found a weak spot in the Russian defenses and WWI-like mindset, then exploited it with three principles of war: surprise, maneuver, and mass. One thing is certain. This is not an incursion, nor the buffer zone that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov envisioned in March. It is a significant armed thrust into Russian pride.
It is escalation – and one cannot help but admire that Zelensky and Syrsky are kicking Gerasimov in the ass by escalating to escalate. Plus, not to mention, poking President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in the eye.
Escalation paralysis exists in the Biden-Harris White House. But Zelensky and his Joshua Chamberlain-like daring generals are now brazenly proving inside of Russia it does not at the president’s offices on Bankova Street in Kyiv or anywhere else on the battlefields Ukraine and the waters of the Black Sea.
Ukraine, as we have often argued, is in this war to win it. It is time that Biden and his team fully get on board.
Especially since Ukraine senses Russian blood in the water – and is dynamically expanding its counteroffensive inside of Russia to include Belgorod.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, finds itself scrambling. Moscow is attempting to assemble a force to counterattack the AFU – and is finding itself at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to combined arms warfare.
Under Putin, they have become a one-dimensional Army that is well versed, yet largely limited to, massing infantry and artillery onto an objective – and deploying in meat grinder fashion full-frontal human wave assaults until the enemy has exhausted their ammunition and are forced to abandon their positions.
Lacking other effective modern warfare courses of action, Moscow has resorted to, in violation of the Geneva Conventions, retaliating against the AFU by deliberately striking Ukrainian civilian population centers with drones, artillery, rockets, and missiles. Tragically, Putin has become proficient in murdering Ukrainian civilians as an illegal tool of war.
Yet Putin overlooked one thing. His meat grinder assaults and attacks on civilians were loudly telegraphing to Zelensky and Syrskyi that the Russian army indeed was stark naked capabilities wise and devoid of leadership. Putin’s evil, in that regard, created Ukraine’s opportunity to counterstrike in Russia.
Finding the leadership to plan and mount a counterattack while in contact may very well be ‘mission impossible’ now for Russian forces in Kursk. After 30 months of sustained combat – leadership and experience are in short supply, as are weapon systems. Mobilized Reservists, conscripts, mercenaries, foreign fighters, and prisoners – encouraged by ‘barrier troops,’ are the bulk of the fighting force.
Many Russian soldiers have not been paid, have little to no water, food, or medical supplies, are equipped with antiquated weapons, have exhausted their ammunition supplies, and are complaining that their commanders are leading them to slaughter.
One Russian soldier assigned to the 1009th regiment whose unit is fighting in Vovchansk, said his unit had been decimated – only 12 of the 100 soldiers assigned to the unit were still alive. “They just chop us up. We are sent under machine guns, under drones in daylight, like meat. And commanders just shout, ‘forward and forward.’”
Russian ground forces have lost whatever institutional knowledge they once possessed in maneuver, as well as other tools of the trade: personnel (589,700), tanks (8,441), armored personnel carriers (16,350), artillery (16,605) and MLRS (1143).
Korean war vintage T-55 tanks, improvised artillery constructed from 73-mm guns taken off BMP-1 fighting vehicles, and high dud rates from ammunition provided by North Korea are no way to fight a war. By striking rapidly into the Russian interior, the Kremlin is forced to reposition forces – pulling troops from the front lines, abandoning fighting positions, and creating targets for HIMARS and drones.
Ukraine has seized the initiative. Russia is in the react mode, forced now to play to their weakness – maneuver. They no longer occupy fortified defensive positions; rather, trucks in convoys strung out for miles on roads with little security reminiscent of convoys heading towards Kyiv in February and March 2022.
What remains to be seen is whether this plays out as a deep raid or becomes something much bigger. Plus, whether Ukraine can retain the terrain they captured and maintain their momentum remains to be seen.
Out running AFU sustainment is possible – and overextending their forward units, making them susceptible to being cut off is another. One thing is certain though. A strong message was sent to Putin, Washington and Brussels – Ukraine intends to win this war with or without active support from the west; the second and third order effects will be felt by everyone.
Has the Ukrainian assault in the Kursk region become their Gettysburg? Is this the decisive battle they need to win on the pathway to victory and their Appomattox Courthouse moment? Is the Russian military in Ukraine on the brink of collapse?
This puts the Biden Administration in a tough spot. Reinforce success and bring the war to a conclusion or continue their narrative of no US equipment or weapons in Russia, thereby giving Putin and his Generals lifelines to survive and fight another day.
Germany, of all countries, greenlighted the use of their weapons in the attack. Their foreign ministry announced that “Ukraine has the right to self-defense enshrined in international law… This is not limited to its own territory.” Roderich Kiesewetter added, “The question of whether Western weapons are involved doesn’t come up because, after they are delivered, they are Ukrainian weapons.”
Winning involves risk, and the Biden Administration is risk averse. Ukraine, however, is not. Zelensky senses blood in the water and is going for the throat – opening a second avenue of approach into Russia in the Belgorod Oblast. Where is Washington? Will this be another missed opportunity?
State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller kept those waters muddied on Thursday when he told reporters, “Ultimately, the decisions about how Ukraine conducts its military operations are decisions that Ukraine makes. Nothing has changed about our policy with respect to strikes across the border.”
Not helpful – the US cannot win a war watching and criticizing from the sidelines. Plus, AFU opportunities abound. There are growing reports Moscow is transferring reinforcements from the Donbas and Crimea.
Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. It is why the AFU “fixed bayonets” in Kursk – and Kursk may well prove the key to unlocking it.
The views expressed in this article are the authors’ and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post
Copyright 2024 Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
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