During winter 2024-2025, Ukraine’s energy system will need to cope with challenges of strikes on energy infrastructure, limited electricity imports, a shortage of hydropower resources, and high demand that could reach up to 19 GW, DiXi Group wrote in its Winter Outlooks report.
Despite a large-scale repair campaign for the Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the summer and autumn, Russia’s missile strikes in spring 2024 significantly worsened the situation, analysts wrote.
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During the first 8 months of 2024, total capacity losses in Ukraine’s energy sector exceeded 9 GW.
“A large-scale repair campaign in the run-up to the 2024/2025 Winter shift has already added almost 3 GW of additional capacity to the grid, but another large-scale shelling on 17 November 2024 again targeted generating facilities at a transmission system substation,” the DiXi Group’s press release wrote.
Nuclear power covers 55% of Ukraine’s winter energy demand, with a maximum capacity of 7.5 GW. Another electricity supply for Ukraine is imports of electricity from the EU – its volume of imports planned to increase to 2.1 GW.
In the report, DiXi Group also calculated three scenarios for the energy situation in Ukraine during winter: baseline, cold weather, and crisis scenarios affecting energy security.
Baseline scenario: moderate temperatures and no new strikes on the energy system
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Under this scenario, a deficit of up to 2 GW is expected due to seasonal demand growth in the Ukrainian energy sector.
Limited electricity imports from Europe, driven by high domestic demand, will be a critical factor for Ukraine’s energy security. Scheduled power outages may be required to balance the energy system. Recovery of thermal generation or increased hydropower output could mitigate the shortfall.
Short-term outages of 3–4 hours might occur during evening peak hours, but the situation is expected to stabilize at night.
Cold weather scenario: increased consumption without new attacks on Ukraine’s energy Infrastructure
Severe frosts could drive electricity consumption higher, resulting in a 3.4 GW deficit – or up to 5 GW in the absence of imports or unstable recovery of generation facilities.
Peak system demand in the Ukrainian energy sector could reach 18.5 GW.
In these conditions, strict outage schedules for 6-8 hours depending on Ukraine’s region, including at night, would be unavoidable.
“Electricity shortages could occur even during periods of minimal demand if severe frosts persist,” DiXi Group’s General Manager for Security and Sustainability Olena Lapenko noted.
Crisis scenario: strikes on the energy system amid moderate temperatures
New strikes targeting thermal power plants could pose significant risks to the stability of the energy system.
Although the deficit would be less severe than during extreme frosts, the grid would operate at its limits. Emergency outage schedules would be necessary to prevent overloads in the Ukrainian energy system.
Experts said that hours-long outages may become a norm, particularly during evening peak hours. However, nighttime conditions would be more stable, provided no attacks occur and emergency imports are available. If attacks persist, emergency outages would become unavoidable.
“In most scenarios (the first and third), we can avoid deficits during periods of minimal demand if imports from the European Union are available. However, during frosts of -10…-15 °C, shortages could occur even at night,” Olena Lapenko concluded.
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