The Russian Ministry of Defense has prepared a forecast of the global military-political situation up to 2045, which includes plans for an end to Ukraine as an independent state, according to Kyiv Post's intelligence sources.

Moscow reportedly intends to convey this plan to the new US administration through foreign governments and representatives.

President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on situation in Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions following an invasion of Ukrainian troops in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflicton August 22, 2024. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / POOL / AFP)

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Russia Draws a New Map of Ukraine

The document proposes dividing Ukraine into three parts, as previously reported by Interfax-Ukraine:

  • Fully and partially occupied regions of Ukraine, which Moscow seeks to officially annex as part of Russia.
  • The territory around Kyiv, referred to by Moscow as a “pro-Russian state entity” - a puppet state with pro-Russian authorities and Russian military presence.
  • Western regions of Ukraine, referred to as “disputed territories” with their fate, to be determined in negotiations involving Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

The Kremlin’s Four Plans for Global Order

Additionally, Ukrainian intelligence has obtained a Kremlin document outlining four potential scenarios for the development of wider international processes, two of which Russia considers most favorable:

  • “Formation of a multipolar world,” where major powers divide spheres of influence.
  • “Regionalization or chaos,” which implies a weakening of the global order.
  • “Dominance of the U.S. and the West”  
  • China emerging as the leading global power

In the first two scenarios, the Kremlin expects to secure victory in the war with Ukraine leading to favorable changes in global politics. The second two scenarios are deemed unfavorable by Russia. These could materialize if Moscow loses the war or the conflict becomes frozen.

Donald Trump was recently elected as the new US President, having promised to swiftly end the war. However, he has yet to present concrete plans, only assumptions and statements from his circle, many of which are considered to be unfavorable to Ukraine.

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