Russian forces have seized more territory in eastern Ukraine than at any other time in 2024, capturing over 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) in the last week, according to Bloomberg.
The recent gains add to Russia’s summer offensive progress, totaling 1,146 square kilometers (442 square miles) since Aug. 6 – a 25% increase from the first half of the year, according to DeepState map data analyzed by Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Despite this momentum, Russia’s advance remains incremental and Russia is far from exerting control over the four Ukrainian regions that Russian President Vladimir Putin has set his sights on. However, with the US focused on upcoming presidential elections and European allies wary of escalating the conflict, Putin’s forces are exploiting the moment to advance on the battlefield.
Republican candidate Donald Trump has indicated skepticism about extending US support for Ukraine, expressing a desire to end the war swiftly if elected.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that only 10% of a $61 billion US aid package pledged in April has been received, attributing delays to bureaucracy. He continues to press the US for the provision of and authority to use long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia, a request that has yet to be granted.
First North Korean Officer Confirmed Wounded in Kursk
Meanwhile, NATO allies are reportedly hesitant to commit additional support, citing concerns over escalating tensions with Russia. Western officials say they see little indication that Moscow is interested in negotiations, as Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in Russia’s Kursk region. This surprise incursion, launched in August, was intended to force Russia to redirect some of its troops from the eastern front, though Russia has so far not shifted its focus.
Russian troops have reportedly captured the town of Selydove, and set their sights on Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, both of which are key logistical hubs for Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region. Capturing these cities would mark a significant step toward Russia’s ambitions to control Ukraine’s eastern industrial areas.
Amid Russian claims, uncertainty lingers over Selydove's true control
Despite Russian claims on Oct. 30 that they had fully captured Selydove and several nearby settlements, the situation remains volatile and uncertain.
A source within the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) told Telegraf, a Ukrainian media outlet, that Ukrainian troops continue to hold their defensive positions. “There’s still an opportunity to defend, so we stay in Selydove,” the source said. “They push us out, we pull back. Then we push them out, and they retreat.”
The General Staff’s morning summary for Nov. 1 did not mention the situation near Selydove, possibly indicating a pause in information due to ongoing, dynamic developments.
Although Ukrainian analysts from DeepState reported the occupation of Selydove on Oct. 30, the General Staff has yet to confirm this. The situation remains fluid due to ongoing combat and frequent shifts in control over certain areas of the town, according to Telegraf.
Ukraine faces manpower strain as Russia gains ground, pressure grows to start peace talks
Ukrainian forces face increasing challenges in the Kursk region as Russia bolsters its troops there, now potentially joined by thousands of North Korean soldiers, US and South Korean officials report.
Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst, points out that while Ukraine has fortified defenses, its limited manpower remains a vulnerability.
According to Bloomberg, analysts attribute Russia’s recent successes to its numerical superiority and larger quantities of artillery ammunition. However, experts, including Alex Kokcharov and Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, caution that these localized gains do not indicate a shift in the war’s overall balance, which remains a protracted conflict of attrition.
Some Kremlin insiders, like political consultant Sergei Markov, speculate that Putin may pursue peace talks if Russian forces reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, Evgeny Buzhinsky, a former senior Russian Defense Ministry official, said that Ukraine’s defenses continue to hold, with no signs of mass surrender or chaotic retreats.
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