On Sunday, Oct. 20, the first round of presidential elections was held in Moldova. At the same time, the country voted in a referendum on possible European integration where citizens had to choose whether or not the country should amend its Constitution to align this post-Soviet country with European laws and ideals.
The vote was crucial for Moldova. This small country, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, has been suffering from Russian hybrid aggression for more than 30 years. As it did in Ukraine’s Donbas, Russia has created and supported the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova, controlling almost 10 percent of the country’s territory and more than 10 percent of the population, including its second-largest city, Tiraspol. Moldova, with a population of 3.5 million, lacks the strength to combat Russia’s “volunteers.”
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Moldova's strategic position is significant for Russia's expansionist ambitions. It borders Ukraine's southwest, near Ukraine’s largest port, Odesa, a crucial hub for imports and exports. Many logistical routes from Southern Europe to Ukraine and Poland pass through Moldova.
French Policy Playing Into Iranian and Russian Hands
It is no surprise that all of Moldova’s neighbors closely monitored the vote. Early in the count, the number of those opposing Moldova’s European course was alarming – the vote stood at 55 percent against European integration. The tide was turned by votes in Chisinau, the capital, where the majority went for European alignment, along with the overseas diaspora that voted in favor of the European mandate. The final result was 50.42 percent in favor, with 49.58 percent against – a mere 13,000 votes separating the two sides (751,000 to 737,000).
Why was this such a close-run thing?
Difficult Reforms
In the 2020 presidential election, pro-Western candidate Maia Sandu secured a significant victory, winning almost a million votes. Later, her party also triumphed in parliamentary elections against pro-Russian parties, claiming a solid majority in the legislature.
“Many Moldovans, facing widespread corruption, a stagnant economy, and inefficient law enforcement, hoped for rapid reforms. They believed that with the president, parliament, and pro-European forces in control, change would come quickly. However, reality reared its ugly head. The new government faced fierce resistance from corrupt and ineffective state institutions, reforms progressed slowly, and anticipated changes did not materialize. This led to public disillusionment with the pro-European course, which pro-Russian forces capitalized on,” Oazu Nantoi, a member of the Moldovan parliament, said.
Investigative journalist Vladimir Thorik explains that Moldova's democratic government faced a unique situation. Several negative factors simultaneously impacted the country’s economy.
“The Russian war against Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices and soaring inflation. The situation is objectively difficult. While Sandu and her team are doing their best, the unreformed judicial system continues to resist, and corrupt officials are rarely imprisoned. Thus, the government’s results over the past four years have not been particularly impressive,” according to Thorik.
Nantoi cites another specific example: no pro-Russian politicians, even those with direct ties to Putin, have been stripped of their parliamentary mandates, despite facing numerous corruption allegations.
“Although the police and law enforcement agencies have improved, many revanchists remain among the judges and prosecutors,” Nantoi adds.
Russia's Influence
Another major factor is the unprecedented pressure Russia exerts on Moldova. According to knowledgeable Kyiv Post sources, the Moldovan government’s battle against Russian propaganda resembles a struggle against the Hydra – when one head is cut off, two more appear.
“In a country with fewer than four million people, 15 television channels that operated with opaque funding and spread Russian propaganda were recently shut down. But the individuals behind these channels and Russian political strategists who openly visit Chisinau are seldom touched. Additionally, many Russian-speaking Moldovans seek out Russian-language content, which Russians provide through platforms like YouTube and TikTok,” one source told Kyiv Post.
Nantoi explains that Russian propaganda is aggressive and mirrors what is being said about Ukraine. It preys on rural populations, using fear as a weapon.
“One aspect of the propaganda targets Sandu and her government, warning that Moldova will follow Ukraine’s path into war. Another aspect focuses on discrediting the EU, claiming that Europe is rife with LGBT movements and that Europeans will seize farmers’ land,” Nantoi says.
Similar tactics were employed in Ukraine by pro-Russian media before they were sanctioned, notably through channels linked to the godfather of Putin’s children, Viktor Medvedchuk. These narratives impeded land reform in both Ukraine and Moldova, despite Russia having had a functioning land market for years.
In addition, Russia orchestrated a pyramid scheme to influence Moldovan voters. Sandu herself mentioned foreign interference weeks before the election. According to Thorik, this scheme involved one of Russia's banks opening accounts for 130,000 Moldovan citizens, with payments of about €100 per month in return for their votes.
That plan ultimately failed, but the battle is far from over.
What’s Next?
Sandu narrowly won not only the referendum but also the first round of the presidential election. The second round, set for Nov. 3, pits her against former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, a candidate from the pro-Russian Socialist Party. According to sources, Russia has plans for a larger pro-Russian effort during the upcoming parliamentary elections, attempting to steer Moldova in the same direction as Georgia.
“In essence, democratic institutions are being exploited to undermine democracy itself. What can we say when 8 out of 11 registered presidential candidates are either directly affiliated with Russia or serve as Kremlin proxies?” Thorik asks rhetorically.
Nantoi urges the West and Ukraine to focus more on Moldova – as Russia certainly is.
“With Putin bogged down in Ukraine and unsure of how to extricate himself, he has turned his attention to Moldova. A pro-Russian victory here would increase pressure on both Ukraine and Western countries,” Nantoi warns.
As for Ukraine, it has yet to appoint a new ambassador to Moldova. Former National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov was nominated to take up the post, but hasn’t yet assumed his duties. Ukraine still lacks research centers focused on Moldova or cooperative bodies that could enhance cultural and economic ties with its neighbor.
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