ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October, 18, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine.
• A number of sources provided footage purporting to substantiate these intelligence reports. The footage appears consistent with reports of North Korean troop deployments to Russia but does not independently validate the intelligence reports.
• Russian forces appear to be further intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast amid initial reports of the start of autumnal muddy ground conditions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to signal his disinterest in meaningful peace negotiations with Ukraine while using the upcoming BRICS summit to legitimize Kremlin information operations falsely portraying Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate.
• Putin used ongoing conversations about security guarantees in Ukraine's Victory Plan to further boilerplate nuclear saber-ratting information operations that aim to discredit Ukraine to its Western partners and prevent Western aid to Ukraine.
• Western partners continue to announce new military assistance to Ukraine.
• The US Department of State (DoS) program Rewards for Justice offered a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the identification or location of foreigners involved in interfering in US elections, including members of prominent Kremlin-awarded milblogger channel Rybar.
• Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on October 18 that Ukraine has recorded more than 100 confirmed cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) amid a recent theater-wide increase in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

Authors: Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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