On Oct.16, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, presented his plan for Ukraine's victory to the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.
The plan as announced during the meeting consisted of five points with three classified appendices which were not disclosed. Zelensky said the plan had already been shared with those Western allies who play a critical role in supplying weapons to Ukraine.
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Kyiv Post analyzed the contents of the victory plan, questioning why it had been formulated in the way it was.
Initially, Zelensky outlined the context that led to the need for a plan in response to Russian demands for a negotiated end to the war based on Moscow’s ultimatums, and continued attacks on Ukraine's critical and civilian infrastructure. An indication that that Russia does not truly plan for peace.
He also referenced the support Russia has been receiving from China, North Korea and Iran with the last two increasing their supply of military materiel. He added that Pyongyang was not only providing weapons but also personnel, both soldiers and workers for military factories.
The central idea of the plan is that Ukraine must be strengthened so that it can withstand the coalition of Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Summary of the five-point plan
Point 1: Western countries should invite Ukraine to join NATO immediately. This would demonstrate a clear intention to integrate Ukraine into the Western security system. According to Zelensky, it would also be a sign of the West's courage and determination.
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Point 2: Strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities by providing Ukraine with additional weapons and allowing them to be used against targets deep inside Russia. A secret appendix is attached to this clause that has been shared with allies.
Point 3: “Deterrence.” Zelensky urged Western countries to deploy non-nuclear military forces in Ukraine after the war to prevent further Russian aggression. This point also includes a secret appendix provided to the leaders of the US, UK, and Italy.
Point 4: Economic measures. Zelensky noted that Ukraine has significant mineral deposits and enterprises that could fall into Russian hands if Ukraine is defeated for which he proposed establishing economic agreements with Western powers to secure these resources.
Point 5: Security. After the war, Ukraine’s forces will have the widest possible experience of using Western weapons in a full-scale conflict. Zelensky suggested that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could replace US forces in Europe after the war.
Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not be Putin's only target if Russia were allowed to win. Other countries could come under attack, and a victory against Russia in Ukraine would bring peace to other regions where Russia is expanding its influence – particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
Reactions to the plan
The initial reaction on Ukrainian social media and from politicians was surprise that the Victory Plan was essentially a set of proposals, requests, and demands directed at Western allies rather than the steps Ukraine could take.
A military officer who watched the Rada broadcast with Kyiv Post asked a very pertinent question:
“What if someone on the other end says no? Yes, it is in the West’s best interest to help Ukraine but what if they can’t or, for internal political reasons, don’t want to? What then?”
Opposition politician Oleksiy Goncharenko, People’s Deputy of the European Solidarity Party raised a second question:
“We have shifted almost all responsibility onto our partners. But what demands are we placing on ourselves? Where is the point about fighting corruption, strengthening democratic institutions, and so on? We are demanding a lot from our partners, but what is our role in this?” he asked.
MP Viktoria Syumar writing on Facebook said: “Gratitude and wishes for partners are good. So are statements about the lack of alternatives to democracy and unity. But these should be implemented, along with strengthening our military-industrial complex, army, and missile production, as well as improving parliamentary oversight, the effectiveness of government bodies, and real personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense.”
Media professionals who frequently visit the US and are familiar with the country’s politics similarly criticized Zelensky’s plan.
“Both camps – Donald Trump’s supporters and Biden’s team – were critical of the plan (though not entirely negative, which is important to note) and had several comments. First, there are no specifics, for example, regarding long-range strikes. Second, the plan suggests a prolonged war, rather than steps to end it soon, which is what both groups prioritize. They also wonder why Ukraine is asking for more weapons but not addressing issues of mobilization, motivation, and staffing brigades, political commentator Yulia Zabelina wrote on Telegram.
Many had expected Zelensky to include specific details on mobilization and demobilization for those who have been fighting since the war began.
According to Kyiv Post sources close to the president, Ukraine’s plans in this area will be announced separately. The main issue is that the war has reached a new level, where the most crucial elements now depend on Western countries.
“Not much depends on Ukrainians now. If, for example, a third more aircraft are used, you can’t just deal with people; you need to destroy storage depots, airfields, and logistics. These require weapons, intelligence, and permission to strike airfields and supply lines,” a source who wished to remain anonymous said.
It is expected that Zelensky will further announce Ukraine’s plans in the near future when he submits the proposal to the European Council.
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