Despite Moscow and Tehran’s ties, US intelligence suggests that the two might have different preferences as to who they wish to see become the next US president.
Unnamed US officials said Monday that Moscow prefers Republican candidate Donald Trump, while Tehran prefers Democrat candidate Kamala Harris, with both nations seeking to influence the outcome through disinformation campaigns, as per Voice of America (VoA).
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The US officials said Moscow has been running operations aimed at boosting Trump’s campaign while hurting Harris’s, and Iran has been leveraging the ongoing hack-and-leak operation against the Trump campaign, which the VoA said, “has been traced to three operatives working for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC].”
Both will likely utilize damages from Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton to generate narratives that undermine confidence in the election results, said US intelligence agencies.
A senior US intelligence official, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, said the agencies noticed a recent “threefold increase” in foreign influence efforts.
The officials said Beijing has yet to exert its influence on the presidential elections, instead focusing on state and local candidates deemed against Beijing’s interests, such as those supporting Taiwan, though they added that Russia and Cuba have also joined in Beijing’s efforts.
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“Moscow is leveraging a wide range of influence actors in an effort to influence congressional races, particularly to encourage the US public to oppose pro-Ukraine policies and politicians,” said an intelligence official.
“Havana almost certainly has considered influence efforts targeting some candidates… This is consistent with what they’ve done in past cycles,” the official added.
Beijing rejected the notion in a VoA inquiry.
Moscow, Tehran’s differing stances
The US intelligence report is consistent with past events and rhetoric from Moscow and Tehran, despite the two being close allies.
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has been vocally against further aid to Ukraine. Trump himself has also been a Ukraine-skeptic before and after Russia’s 2022 invasion, which would favor Moscow.
During his presidency, Trump blocked military aid to Ukraine in 2019 before a phone call that led to his impeachment. The incident saw Trump urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate his opponent in the 2020 election, Democrat Joe Biden, who subsequently won the election and became the US president. Trump was ultimately cleared of all charges by a party-line vote in the Senate.
Immediately following Russia’s 2022 full-scaleinvasion, Trump also praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “genius.” While Trump’s statements on Ukraine fluctuated throughout the full-scale invasion – including vows to end the war “in 24 hours” – he has criticized Ukraine in recent weeks for not ending the war by giving up its territories in exchange for a ceasefire, a notion Kyiv maintained to be a non-starter.
That said, Putin did say on one occasion that he would support Harris – with a wry smile, in a supposedly sarcastic remark.
As for Iran, Trump’s harsh stance on the country – especially during his presidency – is likely why it would prefer Harris over Trump.
Trump has introduced some sanctions against Tehran during his presidency and ordered a US drone strike in Baghdad, in January 2020, that killed Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC’s top commander at the time.
In contrast, while Harris – as vice president of the Biden administration – has maintained strong support for Iran’s regional adversary Israel, the administration has been attempting to de-escalate the tension in the Middle East – which would likely benefit Tehran as many speculated that the country is not ready for a full-scale war with Israel.
That said, Harris has condemned Iran’s recent retaliatory missile strike on Israel with the Biden administration likely to put the ceasefire proposal on hold following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.
With a major regional war looming over the Middle East, an important question remains unanswered – how far will Harris go to back Israel?
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