Ukraine’s Plummeting Population Needs Swift Actions, Says Ukraine’s Social Policy Rep

Kyiv has approved a policy document that outlines plans to increase the birth rate, reduce premature mortality and return almost five million Ukrainian refugees who fled the country following Russia’s 2022 invasion.

The Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040, developed by the Ministry of Social Policy, is one of the first government-developed policies that outlined Ukraine’s plans to battle its growing demographic crisis, which included a rapid decline in its workforce.

It is also Kyiv’s first attempt to consolidate data, assumptions and facts about the population after Russia’s 2022 invasion. 

The demographic strategy has been criticized on social media, with reasons ranging from the absence of key performance indicators and specific action plans to its bureaucratic style. 

Daryna Marchak, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of social policy and one of the major contributors to the strategy, told Forbes Ukraine how the government intends to address the country’s decreasing population. 

Ukraine’s dwindling birth rate, population post-invasion

Ukraine’s fertility rate decreased from 1.5 in 2012 to 1.22 before COVID-19 in 2020. The demographic strategy aims to return the figure to 1.5 before 2040. 

Without an action plan, Ukraine’s population is forecasted to decrease to 29 million by 2041 and 25 million by 2051. 

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The issues arose from outstanding debts from leased foreign aircraft, where payments had to be made in Russian rubles after 2022 and were unaccepted by foreign lessors.

The strategy document also estimated Ukraine’s population to be 31 million in government-controlled territories and 35 million within the entirety of its internationally recognized 1991 borders. At present, Russia illegally occupies 26% of Ukrainian territories.

The strategy is meant to be a vision with forecasted goals, not a detailed instruction on how to achieve the objectives. 

In addition, the government will develop and approve an action plan containing a detailed set of tasks and steps to achieve the goals. The plan is expected to be approved by the end of October. 

“The document provides a vision of what we need to do to make every Ukrainian family want to build their life in Ukraine and stay in the country, give birth and raise children here. It aims to create conditions where as many people as possible will choose to be Ukrainian citizens, including those who choose to return to or move to Ukraine from other countries,” Marchak told Forbes. 

Easy access to schools, healthcare: keys to raising birth rates

Increasing child benefits will not work without infrastructure – in Ukraine, it’s far more convenient to find a kindergarten and healthcare institution in larger cities than in smaller towns and villages. 

Families would also need to be able to afford housing and a mortgage and be sure to have enough resources to invest in their children’s upbringing, education, and health.

“A woman and a family should feel safe that they will have the ability to raise children and afford it financially until they grow up. The best thing the state can do to stimulate birth rates is to create a convenient, barrier-free infrastructure for raising children close to home,” Marchak said. 

In terms of demographic policy, it is also essential that children want to have a future and professional development in Ukraine when they grow up, not abroad.

Potential return of some refugees

Marchak told Forbes that the key to returning Ukrainian refugees from abroad is ending the war and ensuring safety, then it is about creating a comfortable environment to raise children. 

As the war drags on, the number of refugees staying abroad will continue to rise, Marchak added. 

“Third, it is necessary to provide targeted support to families with children, not only at the stage of childbirth but until the child becomes fully independent. Every family planning to have a child should know that if they face hardship, the state will assist and support them, including financially, until the family overcomes the difficulty,” she said. 

It’s also paramount to assure those returning from abroad a quality education and employment prospects that include career development and decent pay.

Another challenge is to create an environment where Ukrainians abroad can quickly find new housing upon their return.

Battling unemployment

Ukraine is now facing structural unemployment – a mismatch between existing skills and skills needed for available jobs.

For example, miners from Ukraine’s Donbas region can have difficulties finding a job in western Ukraine where there are no mines. On the other hand, cities reliant on mining suffer from a dwindling miner population. 

But Marchak said the government is already creating programs to help the workforce develop new skills – for example, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy has launched vouchers to help the unemployed learn new trades.

Attracting migrants can be another option to combat unemployment, but calculations are needed to determine the markets and the number of personnel in demand, in addition to visions on how to integrate migrants into Ukraine to prevent social tensions. 

Apart from an external workforce, Ukraine can also attract citizens who left before the 2022 invasion. Inside Ukraine, the government could also utilize the 700,000 internally displaced people, the elderly, veterans and people with disabilities. 

One thing Ukraine has already experienced is the massive migration of Ukrainians to richer countries. While this is normally observed when relatively less developed nations joined the EU, it happened in February-March 2022 for Ukraine when its citizens flocked to Europe seeking refuge from Russia’s invasion. 

“Therefore, it is important for us to create conditions where people will want to be Ukrainians by choice. The goal is for Ukraine to be a country where people want to live,” Marchak concluded.