‘Lukashenko Is Leading the Country Nowhere’ – Belarusian Opposition Leader Tsikhanouskaya

Lithuania has filed a case to the International Criminal Court (ICC) concerning crimes against humanity committed by Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarusian regime. The request was prepared with the involvement of the opposition’s National Anti-Crisis Management team. Kyiv Post discussed this, as well as Lukashenko’s games with the West, the situation of Belarusians, and the prospects for a democratic Belarus with opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, from whom Lukashenko stole the elections.

Michał Kujawski: It has been four years since the rigged elections in Belarus. What has changed since then?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Over the past four years, Belarusians have managed to maintain unity, strengthen civil society, and reinforce the democratic forces. We have built relationships with the democratic world, the European Union, the Council of Europe, the European Parliament, and begun a strategic dialogue with the United States. This means that we are now partners for our democratic allies, not just a government in exile. We have formalized these relations.

One thing that hasn’t changed over the past years is that Lukashenko’s regime has not succeeded in making people forget or forgive what happened in 2020 and continues to happen to this day. Repression hasn’t decreased – it has intensified. This is the most brutal terror our country has experienced since the Stalinist era. We’ve managed to establish independent power centers, weaken the dictatorship, and we’ve resisted attempts by the regime to divide us. We’ve worked intensively on the international stage and maintained constant communication with people still in Belarus. This is a process. What must be emphasized is that we haven’t given up over all these years.

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Recently, Lukashenko has released several dozen political prisoners. The regime in Minsk is calling on Lithuania to resume diplomatic relations and engage in “constructive cooperation.” Is Lukashenko returning to his old tactics and trying to play with the West?

You’re right, it’s the regime’s unchanging game, called “fool the West.” Ahead of next year’s elections, Lukashenko is sending ambiguous signals saying, “Maybe we’ll try to reset our relations?” But he has gone too far.

I want to believe that thanks to the work with the democratic world, for all the crimes Lukashenko has committed over the years, the democratic world will not return to a “business as usual” policy. When we now talk to our democratic partners, I don’t see any chance of changing the policy towards Lukashenko’s regime. Yes, everyone sees that more than 100 people were released, but at the same time, twice as many were detained.

If the democratic world got the signal that the repression had ended, maybe the approach would change slightly, but that’s not happening right now. Lukashenko pretends to show concern for humanitarian issues with one hand, while continuing to torture people with the other.

On Monday, September 30, Lithuania filed a case with the ICC against the Belarusian government and Lukashenko, accusing them of committing crimes against humanity. It’s about forcing their own citizens to flee the country. Many Belarusians have left the country. The people I speak with fear escalation. They are afraid they won’t see their families who remain in the country. They fear that their families will face repressions because of their involvement in anti-regime activities. What would you tell them?

I also want to return home. I also want to see my husband, whom I haven’t seen for four years. I wish for families to be reunited. I want all of our political prisoners to be freed. That’s why we are fighting. That’s also why I am grateful to Lithuania for demanding justice.

The fear of escalation means a lack of further action: “We need to make deals with Lukashenko, forgive everything he has done.” Of course, we can be flexible, but that doesn’t mean accepting that Lukashenko has the legitimacy to rule, or forgetting what he has done. That’s not the point. All those people who were oppressed, who went through these horrors, deserve justice. Reuniting families and holding Lukashenko accountable are two different things.

The people who left Belarus are also a problem from the perspective of the fight for freedom. Isn’t it the case that the most committed fighters are no longer in the country and, after so many years, have put down roots in other countries?

These are two separate questions. The first concerns those who have left. I must admit, not everyone will return home, but I am convinced that most people want to. I appeal to those who won’t return to continue supporting Belarus. In the future, they will be able to, for example, invest and move their businesses to our country. Support Belarus, even if you live in another country. Another issue is that there is little we can do in our country now. Many of those whose families are being repressed and whose property is being confiscated still continue their work, and have done so for years. You may feel frustrated and exhausted, but I want to call on people to keep fighting. Giving up is what Lukashenko wants. He has time, he can wait. He can torture our loved ones in prison. He doesn’t care, but we do. That’s why we cannot give up.

Next year there are elections. They will probably be rigged again, and it will not surprise anyone. How do you see them? Will you try to fight in some way, or has it gone so far that there is no chance left? What are your plans?

First, we must understand that whatever Lukashenko does in Belarus has nothing to do with elections. It’s a ritual, a circus. It’s a re-appointment of Lukashenko by Lukashenko. It will change nothing in Belarus. The regime isn’t aiming to get Lukashenko re-recognized, nor is it trying to restore citizens’ trust in the government.

We, as the democratic forces, will use this opportunity to launch a major campaign. We may encourage people to take specific actions. People don’t want to take part in this farce, but they might be forced to, and then they must act together.

We are appealing to our democratic partners to declare that they will not recognize these elections as legitimate. They will be carried out by force, and there are no conditions for truly free elections there. We would like them to demand free elections and the release of political prisoners.

For Lukashenko, legitimizing his power is extremely important, which is why he is trying to improve relations with democratic countries before these elections. As we’ve just said – it’s a game he’s playing with the West, and he too should be outplayed.

What needs to happen to have a real chance to create a free Belarus? When could this happen? Does the Russian regime need to fall?

First of all, we shouldn’t link the situation in Russia with the situation in Belarus. Of course, Lukashenko is dependent on Putin, but no country should decide the future of another. We are a separate, sovereign, and independent Belarus, and we have chosen a future for our homeland that is connected to Europe. We want to move in that direction.

In fact, changes in Russia might begin with changes in Belarus. Belarusian society is more united. I remember how the uprising in Belarus in 2020 sparked protests in Russia, which is why Putin saved Lukashenko. He knew it could cause problems in Russia.

Our strategy remains unchanged – we want a peaceful transition of power in Belarus through free elections. Our task is to weaken Lukashenko’s regime through political and economic isolation, strengthen Belarusian society, national identity, independent media, and relations with the democratic world.

People who are part of the regime, part of the system, are carefully watching where the wind is blowing. They see that the democratic movement is gaining strength and more allies. The Belarusian regime doesn’t have many, and Lukashenko is leading the country nowhere. The right moment when the wind will blow in Belarus’s favor will be Ukraine’s victory. Then, Belarusian elites will have to side with the democratic forces.

Freedom comes at a high price. We see it every day in Ukraine, and we have also seen it in Belarus. How much does freedom cost?

The price of freedom consists of days full of pain, days full of suffering, and days spent thinking about those who sacrificed their freedom for the future of Belarus. Days of knocking on many doors that are not always open to you. Days of hard work telling the world what Belarus is and what support it needs to move closer to our victory.

Sometimes this means facing emptiness in the eyes of world leaders who don’t care or who don’t want to support democratic changes in Belarus. It also involves regularly speaking about Belarus. Above all, it requires hard work and individual sacrifice. People are ready for this, but we must together free our compatriots and our country. We must bring Belarus back into the European family of nations.