World Briefing: September 27, 2024

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said. The intelligence assessment, which has not been previously reported, also plays down the effect that the long-range missiles will have on the course of the conflict because the Ukrainians currently have limited numbers of the weapons and it is unclear how many more, if any, the Western allies might provide. The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts see as the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden, who met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House on Thursday. The findings may help explain in part why the decision has been so difficult for Mr. Biden to make, and show the internal pressures on him to say no to Mr. Zelensky’s request. U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations, said it remained unclear what Mr. Biden would decide to do. The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles — from stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases. - NYT

Changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine that were announced by President Vladimir Putin are intended to discourage Ukraine’s Western allies from supporting attacks on Russia, the Kremlin said Thursday. The United States and the European Union both denounced the latest statements by the Russian leader as “irresponsible.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the revisions in the document outlined Wednesday by Putin are a “warning signal to those countries about the consequences in case of their involvement in an attack on our country with various assets, not necessarily nuclear ones.” In the strong, new warning to the West, Putin said that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. The threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. - AP

Former President Trump has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a move that came after the former president had earlier reportedly rejected a meeting with the Ukrainian president. At the start of the meeting - the first since they last met five years ago - Trump said: “We will see what we can come up with.” Zelensky said he will outline his so-called victory plan to the former president. Earlier in the week, Trump criticized the Ukrainian president, saying while in North Carolina on Wednesday, “He’s making little nasty aspersions toward your favorite president, me.” Zelensky rankled Republicans after he called Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) “too radical” during an interview with The New Yorker that was released earlier this week. Zelensky’s decision to join Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) during an ammunition factory tour was also interpreted by some members of the GOP as campaigning for Democrats, The Hill reported.

Nearly 1.2 million people without power. Record coastal flooding from Tampa to the Big Bend. Hundreds of millions of dollars in property losses and damages, at the very least. Hurricane Helene, which roared ashore just after 11 p.m. Thursday night as a Category 4 hurricane, hammered Florida’s Gulf Coast and was far from done with its destruction . The massive system, downgraded to a tropical storm early Friday Morning, was lashing Georgia and dumping torrential rains flooding communities across the Southeast. Rivers were over-topping banks around Asheville, North Carolina, and the rain was expected to keep falling throughout the day. - Miami Herald

The Wall Street Journal reports that the first of China’s Zhou-class nuclear powered attack submarine sank pier-side in a shipyard near Wuhan. Later Thursday the Pentagon confirmed the report. There was no reason given for the sinking, and Chinese media made no mention of the sinking.

Turkey gets embroiled in the imbroglio surrounding disgraced New York City Mayor Eric Adams. An unsealed federal indictment says Ankara asked Eric Adams to push for city approvals and wave fire regulations for its iconic NYC building in exchange for lavish gifts - including $123,000 in free hotel stays and free, or deeply discounted, flights, the New York Post reported. Adams surrendered himself to the feds Friday ahead of a scheduled appearance before a Manhattan federal judge — a day after he was hit with a historic indictment alleging a decade-long pattern of corruption. This makes him the first sitting New York City mayor to be indicted

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly today after angering U.S. and French officials for reportedly backtracking on a draft 21-day ceasefire deal. Here’s what to expect from the beleaguered Israeli leader according to Israeli blogger Leora Lider: “As someone who has seen him in action (or as is his case, dangerous inaction) here in Israel, I provide the following guide and warning. His English is spectacular and impressive, but don’t be fooled by his supposed charm and determination. Anything he says in English is likely the exact opposite of his intentions, and if you do a brief Google search, you will find him saying the exact opposite to his base in Israel, in Hebrew. He will be wearing the yellow hostage pin on the lapel of his expensive suit, when he has zero intentions of bringing them home to their families. Netanyahu’s freshness date expired long ago, and he no longer represents the needs and wishes of the Israeli people.”

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) called on Israeli authorities to stop harassing and obstructing Al Jazeera after armed Israeli forces raided the Qatari broadcaster’s office in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah during a live broadcast early Sunday morning, ordered its closure for 45 days, and forced its staff to leave. “CPJ is deeply alarmed by Israel’s closure of Al Jazeera’s office in the occupied West Bank, just months after it shuttered Al Jazeera’s operations in Israel after deeming it a threat to national security,” said CPJ’s program director, Carlos Martínez de la Serna, in New York. “Israel’s efforts to censor Al Jazeera severely undermine the public’s right to information on a war that has upended so many lives in the region. Al Jazeera’s journalists must be allowed to report at this critical time, and always.”

Safety investigators have issued “urgent” recommendations to Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration over a potential problem on some of the aircraft manufacturer’s 737 Max jets. The National Transportation Safety Board found that pedals that pilots use to steer the aircraft on runways can get stuck when moisture leaks into a rudder system and freezes. The recommendations followed an investigation launched after a United Airlines pilot reported in February that the rudder pedals on their 737 Max 8 were jammed in a neutral position as the plane traveled down the runway following landing at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. The captain was forced to use the tiller—a cockpit handle that turns the wheel below the aircraft’s nose—and the plane veered on to a high-speed turnoff. No injuries were reported during that incident, in which 155 passengers and six crew were on board. According to the FAA, United is the only airline that is affected by the new recommendations, and the parts at risk of the jamming problem are no longer in use - AP