According to informed sources cited by The New York Times, US intelligence assessments suggest that if Ukraine is allowed to use Western long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, Moscow may respond militarily by organizing sabotage in Europe or deadly attacks on US and allied military bases.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized covert operations, such as those carried out in the past by the GRU, Russian military intelligence, it would achieve the aim of inflicting losses on Washington and its allies while reducing the risk of provoking a large-scale conflict.
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Kyiv Post sought comments from Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (HUR), but they said that they “are not commenting on this information yet.”
US analysts believe that even if approval were given Ukraine holds insufficient quantities of such weapons to significantly change the course of the war or whether Western allies would be able to provide additional weapons in the future to change the situation.
The US assessment is that after initial strikes using long-range weapons, Russian forces would quickly relocate its important military assets, such as ammunition depots and command facilities, beyond the reach of Ukraine’s missiles. Although President Joe Biden may provide Kyiv with additional ATACMS missiles, the Pentagon previously warned that they hold limited supplies of the weapons the bulk of which would need to be retained to ensure sufficient were available for its own forces.
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The analysis underscores the existence of significant risks and uncertain benefits of a decision that now rests with President Joe Biden following his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House on Thursday, Sept 26.
On Wednesday, Sept. 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, stating that aggression from a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack. This new provision would, at least in theory, allow Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukrainian forces employ long-range Western weapons to strike Russian territory.
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