Russia is actively waging a hybrid war against the West, says Pekka Kallioniemi, author of the newly released “Vatnik Soup - the Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation,” in this exclusive interview with Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart. The shocking part? The real-life consequences are far more dangerous than you think.
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Pekka, the topic of Russian disinformation, for you, has a personal importance due to your family history – could you tell us a little about it?Both of my mother’s parents had to flee because of the Soviet invasion. My grandmother was 13 years old, and she had to travel all the way to the other side of Finland with complete strangers. The same thing is now happening in Ukraine, which is why I had this strong urge to try and help the country as much as I can.The 1939 invasion was launched after a false flag operation in which the Soviet soldiers shelled their own troops in the town of Mainila. Seventy-five years later Russia funded separatist movements and established puppet states, the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DPR) and the “Luhansk People’s Republic” (LPR) in eastern Ukraine, which then led to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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How has Russia’s propaganda and rhetoric evolved since then? Have the plots that Moscow promotes changed greatly?
Russia still likes to use rhetoric from the old times. They prefer to call World War II the “Great Patriotic War,” and for example, Putin’s version – which strongly demonizes the Poles and the Brits – of what happened differs greatly from the traditional “Western” version. Even the conspiracy theories they promote are recycled – for example, the fabricated text from 1903 called The Protocols of the Elders of Zion describes a “Jewish plot for world domination,” and it is still heavily promoted online.In general, the stories remain the same, but the medium changes.
Have there been any big changes of how Russia spreads its “narratives,” which others would call lies and conspiracy theories, since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, or since the full-scale invasion in 2022?
There has been a shift from using troll and bot farms to spread false narratives to funding and promoting so-called social media superspreader accounts. These accounts have a large and fervent following and they can spread false narratives extremely quickly online. One of the main focuses of my book are these individuals.
Russia often makes totally outlandish claims – that Ukraine is dominated by Nazis; that Ukraine has biolabs for biological warfare; Ukraine is involved in stealing billions of dollars from Western supporters, etc. – but what objective does Russia have if it knows that many of the stories are not only implausible, but that often times they are mutually contradicting?
Russian information operations are not trying to “brainwash” Western audiences. There are people who are susceptible to these fake stories, but their main goal is to sow division and distrust among societies. They want to polarize Western countries because when countries are riddled with internal conflicts, their foreign policy becomes much weaker. This was evident when the US military aid to Ukraine was delayed by several months due to political infighting.
Where do you see that Russia has succeeded, so far, in using its disinformation capabilities to change Western views about the war against Ukraine?
Russia has been able to promote pro-Kremlin parties and politicians around Europe and in the US. In Germany, two pro-Kremlin parties, AfD and BSW have become very popular in recent years. Both Hungary and Slovakia have very pro-Kremlin governments. These results didn’t happen in a void, and there are clear signs and evidence that Russia has been supporting these parties.In the US, I see the so-called MAGA Republicans being very hostile against Ukraine and supportive of Putin’s regime. Recently, it was discovered that the Russian state-funded RT funneled money to pro-Trump influencers to promote pro-Kremlin viewpoints.
Russian propagandists often claim that they are at war with the West: Do you think that presently we are at war with Russia?
In my view, we have been at war with Russia for a long time. Many European countries and the US have been targeted by Russia’s hybrid operations, including sabotaging critical infrastructure and weapons manufacturing. At the same time, Russia is waging an information war against any country that supports Ukraine.
Where has the West – or Westerners – been effective in combating Russia’s dissemination of propaganda?
Since February of 2022, the West has been very good at shedding light on Russian operations. Our response time is getting better, but we are still very much on the defensive. When it comes to disinformation and propaganda, most countries in Europe and especially the US are extremely bad at countering Russian efforts.
Since 2022, NAFO, the North Atlantic Fella Organization, has been active in patrolling social media to find those who disseminate Russian lies: What do you make of NAFO? Have they been effective?
I’ve said that NAFO is the best online activist movement ever, and I stand with this statement. I don’t think many expected the group to survive for this long, but in my view, it’s stronger and better now than ever before at countering Russian bullshit.
What do you make of Russia’s efforts to affect the outcome of the 2024 elections in the US?
I think Russia will continue to heavily support Donald Trump for the 2024 elections, and I believe many of their covert operations will go undiscovered. They will probably focus on the swing states and especially supporting third-party candidates who could potentially take away votes from the Democrats.
If there is one “lesson” that you could impart to others about how Russia tries to influence us, what would it be? What should people keep in mind when reading something? Or when contemplating Russia?
I like to talk about this on a societal level – if we want to protect ourselves against foreign and malign influence, we have to focus on education. Teaching children critical thinking and media literacy is the best way to protect our societies from bullshit.
Vatnik Soup - The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation is now for sale and can be purchased online.
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