US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told journalists on Tuesday that Beijing is aiding Russia’s military production in exchange for advanced technology, which goes beyond exporting dual-use components as previously reported.
“These are not dual-use capabilities … These are basically being applied directly to the Russian war machine … These are component pieces of a very substantial effort on the part of China to help sustain, build and diversify various elements of the Russian war machine.
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“We’re seeing efforts at the highest levels of both governments to try to both hide and protect certain elements of this worrisome collaboration ... Most of these activities have been driven underground,” said Campbell after a meeting with his EU and NATO counterparts in Brussels, according to Politico.
Campbell said Beijing received advanced military technology from Moscow in return, information he said the Kremlin had been reluctant to share until recently.
“The capabilities that Russia is providing is support in areas where previously they had been frankly reluctant to engage directly with China … We are concerned about a particular number of military arenas where there appears to be some determination to provide China with greater support.
“That has to do with submarine operations, activities of aeronautical design, including stealth; that also involves capacities on missile capabilities,” he added.
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Campbell did not name the specifics of the alleged cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, such as Chinese weapons developed with Russian assistance because of the alleged cooperation.
Campbell’s statement coincided with the beginning of Russia’s “Ocean-2024” naval exercise – reportedly the largest in 30 years – with Chinese participation. It also echoed US Ambassador to Beijing Nicholas Burns’s statement in June.
Officially, Beijing has proclaimed a neutral stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine and said it provided no lethal aid to either Ukraine or Russia. However, NATO has criticized Beijing’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Moscow and its continuing trades – including the exports of dual-use components used to manufacture Russian weapons – by calling it a “decisive enabler” in June.
What can China receive from Russia?
The lack of specificity in Campbell’s statement made it unclear how exactly Beijing could benefit from the alleged partnership, though one could speculate based on existing cooperation and developments.
Stealth technologies
Regarding stealth technologies, Beijing might find little use with Russia’s existing knowledge and capabilities in the field.
Simply put, Beijing already has the knowledge and capability to produce an estimated 300 J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighters – enough to equip at least multiple squadrons and far more than what Russia could produce.
Russia continues to face challenges in producing its fifth-generation Su-57 fighters, with speculators continue to question the jet’s actual stealth capabilities and production, with only 10 jets in service as of June according to Ukrainian intelligence estimations.
Submarine developments
However, Beijing could likely benefit from Moscow’s expertise in submarines, and the alleged cooperation – not limited to submarine operations – might already be underway.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) noted that Russia maintains a formidable submarine fleet – some commentators called it “best in the world” – consisting of an estimated 64 vessels, the majority of which are nuclear-powered with its 16 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
In comparison, the NTI noted that China only has six SSBNs despite having a total of 60 submarines, 48 of which are older, diesel-electric-powered variants.
However, the South China Morning Post reported in June that Beijing has “for the first time publicly acknowledged a strategic shift away from conventional submarines” to nuclear variants, and Russia’s expertise could theoretically aid Beijing in that pursuit – which might’ve started already.
In October 2023, Reuters reported that Chinese breakthroughs in ensuring the quietness of its Type 096 SSBNs were “aided in part by Russian technology,” with analysts believing that they could be operational by 2030. However, some analysts told Reuters that Russia probably did not provide China with its latest technologies – though that might be subjected to change soon.
Missile technologies
With missile technologies, it’s not clear if Russia could – or would – provide China with what it wanted.
US officials claimed in March that China was ahead of Russia in terms of its hypersonic arsenal, with some Chinese analysts voicing disappointment in the performance of Russia’s Khinzal hypersonic missiles in Ukraine.
On Sept. 3, Russia also sentenced yet another physicist, Alexander Shiplyuk, to 15 years in prison for treason for allegedly leaking sensitive data on hypersonic missile developments to China in 2017.
At the time of publication, there were no confirmed reports of Moscow passing advanced missile technologies to Beijing, and whether that would change anytime soon.
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