What to Make of Ukraine’s Strike into Russia’s Kursk Oblast?

How do you evaluate the attack?

This is clearly a new development. Previous such attacks on Russian territory were carried out by the semi-regular Free Russia Legion of Russian fighters within the Ukrainian armed forces. The recent foray, in contrast, appears to be a deployment of regular Ukrainian troops on Russian territory. This makes the further conduct of the war more complicated for Russia, as the attack means that Russia will have to keep more troops on its own territory in the future to prevent such Ukrainian counterattacks.

In your opinion, what are Ukraine's goals with this attack?

It is above all a diversionary maneuver to tie up Russian military resources that would otherwise be deployed in Ukraine. For example, there were rumors of a possible Russian attack on the Sumy region. With its own offensive, Ukraine has now pre-empted Russia. On the other hand, this attack obviously has political objectives: It is intended to undermine the Kremlin's reputation, propaganda and information policy among the Russian population. This lapse is also likely to be problematic for Putin's standing within the Russian elite.

What light does such a major attack on Russian soil shed on Putin and his military?

The at least initial success of the Ukrainian attack once again illustrates Russia's astonishing military weakness, which had already become apparent in 2022. The events in the Kursk Oblast will hardly become decisive for the war. However, they undermine the popular narrative of Russia's alleged invincibility and superiority - a narrative that is often propagated to advocate a Russian Siegfrieden (victory peace) with Ukrainian territorial cessions to end the war. Some observers are now joking that Russia must cede state territory to Ukraine to preserve European peace.

Other Topics of Interest

Harshest Winter Yet: Will Ukraine Withstand New Russian Attacks on Its Energy Sector?

A challenging winter awaits Ukraine due to limited air defense and increased cooperation between Russia and its allies. What is Ukraine doing about it?

In your opinion, to what extent can we expect such Ukrainian attacks in Russia in the future?

Ukraine will probably continue to look for weak points along the front line. Russia will now invest more in fortifying the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian attack has strategic significance in that it deconstructs the seemingly static front-line development and force constellation of the war for Russia and the world. Kyiv will also continue to try to use various means to make it clear that the course and end of the war is unpredictable, and that the assumption of unquestionable Russian superiority is misleading.