Ever since February 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has been calling for protection from Moscow’s missile, drone and bombing attacks.
These demands increased further following the interception of the April Iranian missile and UAV attack on Israel in which the US, UK and other allies acted to intercept the attack.
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Many consider it illogical that it was acceptable to act in that situation but not in the case of Ukraine, which faces a more substantial, ongoing bombardment.
It now seems that the day Ukraine will get outside active support to defend against Russian missile attacks is drawing closer.
Section III of the security cooperation agreement, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Monday, July 8, addresses areas of defense and military cooperation.
Clause 20 of the subsection titled Ukraine’s military capabilities lays down a commitment to examine the “rationale and feasibility of the possible interception in Ukraine’s airspace of [Russian] missiles and UAVs fired in the direction of the territory of Poland.”
This is not, as some commentators have suggested, a firm agreement by Warsaw to act against Russian barrages over Western Ukraine, but undertakes to consider it in consultation and “following the necessary procedures agreed upon by the states and relevant organizations.”
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A spokesperson from the US State Department of State said that the possibility might be discussed at the NATO summit, where air defense for Ukraine has featured prominently on the agenda. It is likely that any decision made at the summit, whether positive or negative, will not be declared publicly and may only become evident if and when a cross-border interception takes place.
If Poland “gets the go-ahead” the question arises as to what air defense assets Poland can call on and whether they would be sufficient to repel Russian attacks.
Surface-to-air weapons
Poland is in the early stages of expanding and modernizing its defense forces, largely in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As a result, its arsenal of weapons is a mixture of Soviet-era systems augmented by the first few modern weapons that will eventually replace this older hardware; this is especially true of both the airborne and ground-based air defense assets it could call on.
Let’s look at those in a little more detail.
Aegis Ashore – this is an anti-ballistic missile defense site located near Redzikowo on Poland’s northern coastline. It is part of a larger NATO missile shield and is designed to detect, track and intercept ballistic missiles in flight. It uses the US “SM Series” of missiles with a maximum range of around 240 kilometers (150 miles). This is not far enough to protect Ukrainian airspace but could provide cover from any aggressive action emanating from the Russian Kaliningrad exclave.
MIM 104 Patriot – Poland has currently only received two of the eight batteries of Patriot surface-to-air missile systems it has ordered from the US, roughly 12 launchers. It also currently hosts an unspecified number of launchers belonging to German and US forces stationed in Poland. If sited close to the Ukrainian border and if there was an agreement to use all the Patriots held on Polish soil this would, with their operational range of around 160 kilometers (100 miles), provide cover for Western Ukrainian cities such as Lviv, Rivne, Lutsk and Ternopil.
Sky Sabre SAM – this is designed as a short- to medium-range key asset protection system which has a maximum operational range of 25 kilometers (15 miles) so would offer little in the way of protection of Ukrainian facilities even if positioned on or close to the border.
S-125 Neva SC – Poland has 17 of the 1960s vintage S-125 (NATO: SA-3 Goa) air defense systems with a range of around 35 kilometers (22 miles). Despite their age they have proven effective in the anti-missile role in Ukraine as Kyiv Post reported earlier this month.
SHORAD (short-range air defense) systems – As Defense Express has reported, Poland has several short-range tactical air defense systems intended to defend deployed military assets which again have little operational value in respect of protecting Ukraine but may be useful in defending against Russian “overshoots” close to the border, such as that which occurred in March. These assets include: 20 2K12 Kub, 79 Poprad, 64 Osa-P SAM systems and 12 PSR-A Pilica combined anti-aircraft missile and cannon systems.
Air-to-air weapons
The Polish Air Force has a mix of around 20 MiG-29 and 48 US F-16 fighter aircraft which can carry a range of air-to-air missiles. The F-16 loadout can include many NATO standard weapons including the AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles with ranges from 10 to a nominal maximum of 100 kilometers. It's probable that Poland’s MiG 29s have also been modified to carry NATO weapons.
While it is unclear what role if any Poland’s fighters could play in defending Ukrainian air space, Warsaw has scrambled its air defense aircraft on several occasions during recent Russian missile attacks against Western Ukraine, primarily to protect its own airspace from possible unauthorized incursion, or “overshoots,” whether inadvertent or intentional violations.
Political Considerations and Plan Implementation
For information about the political and international considerations related to the Ukraine-Poland Security Cooperation Agreement signed July 8, 2024, read Kyiv Post’s companion article Poland Won’t Intercept Russian Missiles Attacking Ukraine Unless NATO Agrees by clicking here.
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