WORLD BRIEFING: May 15, 2024

After months of slow Russian ground advances and technological leaps in countering American-provided arms, the Biden administration is increasingly concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin is gathering enough momentum to change the trajectory of the war, and perhaps reverse his once-bleak prospects. In recent days, Moscow’s troops have opened a new push near the country’s second-biggest city, Kharkiv, forcing Ukraine to divert its already thinned-out troops to defend an area that it took back from Russian forces in a stunning victory in the fall of 2022. Artillery and drones provided by the United States and NATO have been taken out by Russian electronic warfare techniques, which came to the battlefield late but have proven surprisingly effective. And a monthslong debate in Washington about whether to send Ukraine a $61 billion package of arms and ammunition created an opening that Russia has clearly exploited, even though Congress ultimately passed the legislation. In interviews, American officials express confidence that many of these Russian gains are reversible once the spigot of new arms is fully opened, most likely sometime in July, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine finds ways to bring more — and younger — troops to the front lines. But they are hesitant to offer predictions of where the battle lines may stand even a few months from now, or whether Mr. Zelensky will be able to mount his long-delayed counteroffensive next year, after one last spring fizzled. - NYT

President Salome Zurabishvili warned that Georgia's survival as a state is in danger after parliament approved a contentious "foreign agent" law despite weeks of popular protests and warnings from the West that the move endangers Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Speaking at a news conference in Tbilisi with the visiting foreign ministers of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Iceland on May 15, Zurabishvili reiterated she would veto the legislation approved a day earlier, as the government "did not listen to the voice of its people, nor to the advice of its friends, nor to anyone's warning, and went its own way…The issue of Georgia's survival is at stake today," she said. - RFE/RL

Georgia has been warned by the US not to become an adversary of the west by falling back in line with Moscow, as its parliament defied mass street protests to pass a “Kremlin-inspired” law. Washington’s assistant secretary of state, Jim O’Brien, spoke of his fears that the passing by Georgia’s parliament of a “foreign agents” bill on Tuesday could be yet another “turning point” in the former Soviet state’s troubled history. In comments that appeared to signal a conviction in the US that the Georgian government was once again aligning with Russia, O’Brien suggested funding could soon be pulled. Billions of dollars had been spent by the US on rebuilding Georgia after the fall of the Soviet Union and hundreds of millions more were planned for the country’s economy and military, he said. “All that has to be under review if we are now regarded as an adversary and not a partner,” O’Brien told reporters at a press conference in Tbilisi. - The Guardian

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to take part in a wreath-laying ceremony Wednesday in Kyiv and meet with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, as part of a visit meant to demonstrate U.S. support for Ukraine as Ukrainian forces face pressure from Russia in the eastern part of the country. "We are with you today. And we will stay by your side until Ukraine's security, sovereignty, its ability to choose its own path, is guaranteed," Blinken said during a speech Tuesday evening. Blinken’s visit follows approval of $61 billion in new aid for Ukraine, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised as a “crucial package” in his Tuesday meeting with Blinken. During the past week, Russia has intensified its attacks on the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine. - VOA

An "unprecedented" manhunt is taking place in northern France for a prisoner who escaped during a deadly ambush. Mohamed Amra, known as "The Fly", was being taken back to jail from a court in Normandy on Tuesday when a car rammed his prison van at a toll booth. Armed men then opened fire on the vehicle, killing two officers and seriously injuring three others. "All means are being used to find these criminals," French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said. - BBC

Conflict has forced more than 68 million people to leave their homes as of the end of 2023 – the highest figure since data became available 15 years ago. Natural disasters made a further 7.7 million people homeless, pushing the total number of internally displaced people (IDPs) to a record 75.9 million, according to figures published by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre on Tuesday. The rise in displacements is the result of both new wars and older, drawn-out conflicts that have made it impossible for citizens to return home. Christelle Cazabat, the head of programmes at the centre, which is part of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said: “Not only do we have new crises starting or old crises that are being reignited, prompting more people to be newly displaced, but also, perhaps more importantly, the people who have been displaced for years, sometimes even decades, who are not able to start their lives anew or live in the way they did before their displacement.” - The Guardian

Boeing has violated the terms of a deal to avoid prosecution after the fatal crashes of two 737 Max planes more than five years ago, the U.S. Justice Department told a federal judge on Tuesday. That means the troubled plane maker could be subject to criminal prosecution for defrauding federal regulators, though Justice Department lawyers stopped short of saying whether they will pursue that remedy. "The Government has determined that Boeing breached its obligations" under the agreement it reached with the Justice Department in early 2021, "by failing to design, implement, and enforce a compliance and ethics program to prevent and detect violations of the U.S. fraud laws," prosecutors wrote in a letter to Federal District Judge Reed O'Connor in Texas. - NPR