British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 16 March 2024

• According to analysis by Vorstka of Russian Pension and Social Insurance Fund data, there has been a record growth between 2022 and 2023 in the amount of Russian men aged 31-59 years with disabilities, over the eight years of available data. In 2022, there were officially 1.67 million men with disabilities in Russia aged 31-59 years. This figure increased by 507,000 or 30% in 2023.

• Russian demographers have told Vostka that the increase in the number of men with disabilities was most likely due to the growth in military invalids. This is almost certainly the case. A significant majority of the over 355,000 casualties that the Russian Armed Forces have suffered as a result of the conflict in Ukraine have been wounded personnel. The average daily number of Russian casualties grew from the start of the Russian offensive campaign in autumn 2023, reaching a peak of 983 per day in February 2024, the highest rate since the start of the war.

• The record rise in men with disabilities aged 31-59 and wounded personnel will have a significant impact on the Russian medical and social services.