ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2023

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces appear to have conducted a limited raid across the Dnipro River and landed on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, although it remains unclear whether Ukrainian troops have established an enduring presence on the east bank.

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• ISW will continue to offer a conservative assessment of the situation on the east bank of Kherson Oblast until or unless ISW observes visual confirmation of an enduring Ukrainian presence near Kozachi Lopan or other east bank settlements.

• Talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Communist Party Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi following China’s participation in the peace talks in Saudi Arabia suggest that China is increasingly diverging with Russia on proposed settlements to end the war.

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• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is using the recent coup in Niger and Wagner’s continued presence in Africa to maintain relevance in the Russian information space.

• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line, in the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Donetsk Oblast on August 8 and made advances in certain areas.

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 8 and made advances near Svatove.

  

  Other Topics of Interest

  Inside the South Korean Weapons Factory That Could Supply Kyiv

  Domestic policy prevents Seoul from sending weapons to conflict zones. However, since its spy agency accused North Korea of sending soldiers to aid Moscow, South Korea warned it may change its stance.

• Russia continues to draw from its stock of Soviet-era equipment to compensate for equipment losses in Ukraine.

• Russian occupation authorities are preparing for regional elections in occupied areas.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan

See the original here.